HUAXIN CEMENT(SH:600801) Shanghai Securities·2024-10-30 06:40Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company's performance remains resilient despite weak domestic cement demand, with a year-on-year revenue increase of 2.29% to 24.719 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, although net profit decreased by 39.26% to 1.138 billion yuan [2][3] - Domestic cement prices have seen multiple rounds of increases since September, which may lead to a recovery in annual performance [4] - The company's overseas business continues to grow, with the Dondo plant project in Mozambique expected to enhance competitiveness in the market [4][5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of 8.482 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.78%, while net profit was 408 million yuan, down 40.17% year-on-year [2][3] - The financial expense ratio for the first three quarters of 2024 was 2.86%, an increase of 0.95 percentage points year-on-year, attributed mainly to exchange rate losses [3] Market Conditions - National cement production for the first nine months of 2024 was 1.327 billion tons, a decrease of 10.70% year-on-year, marking the lowest level since 2010 [3] - The weak demand is influenced by ongoing real estate investment stabilization and local government debt pressures, leading to fewer new projects [3] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 34.962 billion yuan, 38.101 billion yuan, and 41.678 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 3.57%, 8.98%, and 9.39% respectively [5] - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 2.504 billion yuan, 2.901 billion yuan, and 3.128 billion yuan, with growth rates of -9.35%, 15.85%, and 7.82% respectively [5] Valuation Metrics - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 11.70 for 2024, 10.10 for 2025, and 9.37 for 2026 [5][7]