YTO(600233) 华创证券·2024-10-30 05:23Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for YTO Express (600233) with a target price of 21.77 yuan, representing a 29% upside from the current price [1][3] Core Views - The report highlights that the "anti-involution" trend in the express delivery industry is beneficial for the release of performance elasticity among express companies [1] - The industry landscape is optimizing, with major companies shifting their competitive strategies, such as ZTO focusing on service quality and J&T achieving adjusted profitability in the first half of 2024 [1] - The report continues to be optimistic about the express delivery industry's configuration window [1] Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, YTO Express achieved revenue of 16.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.1%, and net profit attributable to the parent company of 943 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.1% [1] - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 49.37 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.1%, and net profit attributable to the parent company of 2.93 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.2% [1] - The single-ticket revenue in Q3 2024 was 2.20 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.8%, and the single-ticket net profit was 0.140 yuan [1] Operational Performance - In the first three quarters of 2024, YTO Express completed a business volume of 18.9 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 26.0%, with Q3 business volume reaching 6.71 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 28.1% [1] - The company's market share in the first three quarters was 15.3%, ranking first among major express delivery companies [1] Profit Forecast - The report slightly adjusts the profit forecast, expecting net profit attributable to the parent company of 4.12 billion, 5.00 billion, and 5.72 billion yuan for 2024-2026, with corresponding EPS of 1.20, 1.45, and 1.66 yuan, and PE ratios of 14, 12, and 10 times respectively [1] Industry Comparison - In the first three quarters of 2024, the business volume growth rates of major express delivery companies were: STO (30.8%) > Yunda (27.7%) > YTO (26.0%) > Industry (22.0%) > SF (9.1%) [1] - In Q3 2024, the business volume growth rates were: YTO (28.1%) > STO (27.9%) > Yunda (23.7%) > Industry (20.1%) > SF (14.5%) [1]