经纬恒润：2024Q3业绩符合预期，经营效率大幅提升

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" rating for the company with a 6-month target price of 95.8 RMB, compared to the current price of 82.97 RMB as of October 29, 2024 [1] Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 performance met expectations, with significant improvement in operational efficiency and strong growth in the automotive electronics business [2][3] - Revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 3.546 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 24.05%, while net profit attributable to the parent company was -410 million RMB, with an expanded loss [2] - Q3 2024 revenue was 1.519 billion RMB, up 30.8% year-on-year and 33.52% quarter-on-quarter, with a net loss of -77 million RMB, showing a narrowed loss compared to the previous quarter [2] Automotive Electronics Business - The automotive electronics business grew strongly, driven by mass production of high-value products for new clients such as Xiaomi and Xpeng [3] - The company supplied Xiaomi SU7 with front, left, and right zone controllers, 5G T-BOX, and electric tailgate controllers, which began mass production in Q2 2024 [3] - Xiaomi SU7 sales in Q3 2024 reached 39,800 units, a 33% increase quarter-on-quarter [3] - The company also supplied Xpeng MONA MO3 with a central computing platform (CCP) and ADAS products, which began mass production in September 2024 [3] Profitability and Efficiency - Q3 2024 gross margin was 23.95%, down 3.45 percentage points year-on-year but up 3.04 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, mainly due to the recognition of high-margin R&D services in the second half of the year [3] - Operating efficiency improved significantly, with the expense ratio dropping to 29.4%, down 4.87 percentage points year-on-year and 6.75 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [3] - R&D expenses in Q3 2024 were 254 million RMB, with an R&D expense ratio of 16.70%, down 7.54 percentage points year-on-year and 4.99 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [3] Product Layout and Future Growth - The company has completed a comprehensive layout of vehicle electronic control products, with multiple new products entering mass production [4] - The company launched the first integrated gateway domain control product, Haozhi Supercomputing XPC-S32G, in collaboration with NIO, which began mass production in the second half of 2024 [4] - The ADAS product based on Mobileye EyeQ™6 Lite chip entered mass production in Q2 2024 [4] - The R-EPS (Rack-Electric Power Steering) system was mass-produced in Q2 2024 for a new energy vehicle manufacturer's mid-to-high-end MPV model [4] Autonomous Driving and Port Business - The company has been exploring L4 autonomous driving since 2018 and successfully provided a full set of port MaaS solutions for Rizhao Port in 2021 [4] - The third-generation heavy-duty autonomous flatbed truck reduced average energy consumption by 23% compared to the previous generation, with 4 units delivered to Longgong Port by May 16, 2024, helping the port achieve an annual container throughput of over 100,000 TEUs [4] - Tangshan Port received 22 heavy-duty autonomous transport vehicles (HAV), and the project has reached the "real ship production operation" state [4] Financial Forecasts - The report forecasts 2024-2026 revenues of 5.6 billion RMB, 6.76 billion RMB, and 8.22 billion RMB, respectively, with net profits of -110 million RMB, 190 million RMB, and 340 million RMB [5] - The 2025-2026 PE ratios are estimated at 53.5x and 29.5x, respectively, with a 6-month target price of 95.8 RMB based on a 1.7x PS ratio for 2025 [5] Historical Financial Performance - 2022A revenue was 4.02 billion RMB, with a net profit of 230 million RMB, while 2023A revenue was 4.68 billion RMB, with a net loss of -220 million RMB [6] - The 2024E revenue is projected at 5.6 billion RMB, with a net loss of -110 million RMB, while 2025E and 2026E revenues are expected to reach 6.76 billion RMB and 8.22 billion RMB, with net profits of 190 million RMB and 340 million RMB, respectively [6] - The 2024E EPS is -0.91 RMB, while 2025E and 2026E EPS are projected at 1.55 RMB and 2.81 RMB, respectively [6]