贵州茅台：点评报告：Q3业绩保持稳增长，茅台酒增长亮眼

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Add" [4] Core Views - The company reported steady growth in Q3 2024, with total revenue reaching 123.12 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.91%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 60.83 billion yuan, up 15.04% year-on-year [1] - The sales growth of Moutai liquor was particularly strong, with Q3 revenue for Moutai liquor at 32.56 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 16.32% [2] - The company maintained its profit forecast for 2024-2026, expecting net profit attributable to shareholders to reach 86.94 billion yuan, 100.24 billion yuan, and 116.22 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 16.33%, 15.30%, and 15.94% respectively [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 39.67 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 15.56%, and net profit of 19.13 billion yuan, up 13.23% year-on-year [1] - The gross margin and net margin slightly decreased, with Q3 gross margin at 91.05% and net margin at 48.23%, down 0.47 percentage points and 0.99 percentage points year-on-year respectively [2] Product Performance - Both Moutai liquor and series liquor showed growth in Q3, with series liquor revenue at 6.25 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.14% [2] - In the first half of 2024, Moutai liquor and series liquor revenue growth rates were +15.67% and +30.51% respectively, indicating a shift in performance dynamics in Q3 [2] Sales Channels - Direct sales revenue grew significantly in Q3, while revenue from the "i Moutai" app declined by 18.37% year-on-year, reaching 4.52 billion yuan [3] - Q3 direct sales and wholesale revenue were 18.26 billion yuan and 20.54 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth of 23.50% and 9.72% respectively [3] Earnings Forecast - The company forecasts earnings per share (EPS) of 69.21 yuan, 79.79 yuan, and 92.51 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 22.13, 19.19, and 16.56 [6][8]