Yunnan Aluminium (000807) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2024-10-30 06:23Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) as of October 29, 2024 [2]. Core Views - The company has fully released its primary aluminum production, which contributes to profit elasticity. The green aluminum production demonstrates investment value [2][4]. - The company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.82 billion yuan in Q3 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 31.67% [1][2]. - The average market price of electrolytic aluminum in Q3 2024 was approximately 19,600 yuan per ton, a decrease of 975 yuan per ton compared to the previous quarter [3]. Production and Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2024, the company produced 214.8 million tons of primary aluminum, a year-on-year increase of 26.32% [3]. - The company’s revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was 39.186 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 52.49% [2]. - The company’s net profit for 2024 is projected to be 4.944 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 25.0% [5]. Production Capacity and Green Energy - The company has a large-scale green aluminum production capacity of 3.05 million tons, with approximately 80% of its electricity sourced from green energy [4]. - The carbon emissions from green aluminum production are about 20% of those from coal-powered aluminum production, highlighting its competitive advantage [4]. Financial Projections - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is 1.43 yuan, with estimates of 1.63 yuan and 1.69 yuan for 2025 and 2026 respectively [5]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 8.8 in 2024 to 7.4 in 2026, indicating potential undervaluation [5].