晨光股份：收入短期承压，静待经营改善

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][9] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 17.11 billion RMB for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 7.9%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.02 billion RMB, a decrease of 6.6% [2] - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 6.06 billion RMB, up 2.78% year-on-year, but the net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 20.6% to 390 million RMB [2] - The traditional core business faced weak consumer confidence and sluggish terminal sales, while the technology segment showed strong performance with a revenue increase of 38.9% in Q3 [2] - The company is focusing on product development and optimizing product structure to enhance sales contribution and improve shelf rates [2] - The report highlights the potential for growth in the retail segment and overseas markets, particularly in Africa and Southeast Asia [2] Summary by Sections Performance Analysis - The traditional core business revenue in Q3 2024 was 2.64 billion RMB, down 1.9% year-on-year, with specific segments showing varied performance: writing instruments at 880 million RMB (+2.5%), student stationery at 1.19 billion RMB (-8.4%), and office supplies at 710 million RMB (+1.9%) [2] - The technology segment's revenue reached 400 million RMB in Q3, reflecting a robust growth of 38.9% [2] Financial Forecasts - The company expects net profits attributable to shareholders to be 1.55 billion RMB in 2024, 1.84 billion RMB in 2025, and 2.16 billion RMB in 2026, with corresponding P/E ratios of 18, 15, and 13 times [2][5] - Revenue projections for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 25.21 billion RMB, 28.88 billion RMB, and 33.24 billion RMB respectively, with growth rates of 7.95%, 14.57%, and 15.10% [5] Market Positioning - The company is actively enhancing its channel efficiency and market share through online sales and direct sales strategies [2] - The report emphasizes the importance of the company's deep channel moat and the growth potential of new business segments [2]