恒立液压：费用扩张影响利润释放，看周期拐点向上

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with expected net profits of 2.5 billion, 3.0 billion, and 3.6 billion RMB for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, corresponding to PE valuations of 30, 25, and 21 times [2][4]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 6.9 billion RMB for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.32%, and a net profit of 1.79 billion RMB, up 2% year-on-year. In Q3 2024 alone, revenue reached 2.1 billion RMB, a 11% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 500 million RMB, up 6% year-on-year, slightly below expectations [2][4]. - The domestic excavator market is showing signs of recovery, while non-excavator segments continue to grow rapidly. The company’s hydraulic cylinder and pump valve businesses for excavators have seen significant growth due to market recovery and increased market share [2][4]. - The company is actively expanding its overseas market presence and diversifying its business, with a focus on electric and automated machinery, which is expected to create new growth opportunities [2][4]. Summary by Sections Performance Analysis - The company’s Q3 2024 profit was lower than expected primarily due to rapid personnel expansion leading to increased expenses. The gross margin for Q3 was 41%, down 1.93 percentage points year-on-year, and the net margin was 24%, down 1 percentage point year-on-year [2][4]. - The non-excavator market, including marine engineering and agricultural machinery, has shown strong performance, although the high machinery market's downturn has affected overall revenue growth in this segment [2][4]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2024 to 2026 are 9.614 billion, 11.113 billion, and 12.899 billion RMB, with growth rates of 7.00%, 15.59%, and 16.07% respectively. Net profit forecasts for the same period are 2.501 billion, 3.048 billion, and 3.625 billion RMB, with growth rates of 0.07%, 21.91%, and 18.90% respectively [4][5].