一拖股份：毛利阶段承压，看好需求企稳与大型化

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][3]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 10.74 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 4.7%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.1 billion yuan, up 1.4% year-on-year [2]. - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 2.93 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.4% year-on-year, and a net profit of 200 million yuan, down 40.9% year-on-year [2]. - The decline in Q3 revenue and profit is attributed to increased promotional efforts, leading to a lower gross margin of 14.6%, down 3.6 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The company has strong operating cash flow, with a net cash flow from operating activities of 830 million yuan in Q3, significantly higher than the net profit level of 200 million yuan [2]. - The report highlights a positive outlook for demand stabilization due to grain prices nearing minimum purchase prices [2]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - For Q3 2024, the company’s revenue and expenses met expectations, but gross profit was below expectations due to increased promotional activities [2]. - The average cash flow from operations in Q3 was 4.25 times the net profit, indicating good production and sales conditions [2]. Market Trends - The report notes an increase in the production share of large tractors, with large tractor production in September 2024 at 10,433 units, down 3.0% year-on-year, but the share of large tractors rose by 2.0 percentage points to 28.0% [2]. - The trend towards larger tractors remains strong despite a decline in production due to falling grain prices [2]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for 2024, 2025, and 2026 has been lowered, with expected net profits of 1.01 billion, 1.17 billion, and 1.36 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a downward adjustment of 15% for 2024 and 2025, and 17% for 2026 [2]. - The current price-to-earnings ratio (PE) is projected to be 19, 16, and 15 times for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [2].