东鹏饮料：第二曲线蓄力，Q3业绩再超预期

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Dongpeng Beverage (605499.SH) [1][6] Core Views - The company reported strong performance in Q3 2024, with revenue of 12.558 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 45.3%, and a net profit of 2.707 billion RMB, up 63.53% year-on-year [1] - The growth in the functional beverage segment remains robust, with the "Brewed Water" product exceeding expectations in Q3 [1] - The company is expected to continue benefiting from its national expansion strategy and the growth potential of its electrolyte water product line [1] Summary by Sections Performance Overview - For Q3 2024, Dongpeng Beverage achieved revenue of 4.685 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 47.29%, and a net profit of 977 million RMB, up 78.42% year-on-year [1] - The company’s Q3 2024 gross margin was 45.81%, an increase of 4.29 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 20.85%, up 3.64 percentage points year-on-year [1] Product Analysis - In Q3 2024, revenue from Dongpeng Functional Beverage, Brewed Water, and other beverages was 3.652 billion RMB, 735 million RMB, and 281 million RMB respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 27.73%, 299.58%, and -12.07% [1] - The electrolyte water product is still in its early growth phase, indicating significant room for market penetration [1] Channel and Regional Performance - Revenue growth by channel in Q3 2024 was 41.0% for distribution, 79.0% for direct sales, and 140.0% for online channels [1] - The company added 11 new distributors in Q3, bringing the total to 2,993 [1] - Revenue growth in the Guangdong region was 23.8%, while other regions saw growth rates exceeding 40% [1] Financial Projections - The report raises profit forecasts for 2024-2026 by 8% each year, projecting net profits of 3.14 billion RMB, 4.04 billion RMB, and 5.04 billion RMB respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 54%, 29%, and 25% [1][3] - The projected P/E ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 36x, 28x, and 22x respectively [1][3]