淮北矿业：无水乙醇基本达产，Q3煤价下滑压制业绩

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Huabei Mining (600985.SH) [1] Core Views - The company has achieved basic production capacity for anhydrous ethanol, but Q3 coal price decline has pressured performance [1] - The report anticipates a gradual improvement in production and sales, with a focus on the long-term growth potential of the company due to the increasing value-added in the industrial chain [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 56.786 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.96%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.139 billion yuan, a decrease of 18.17% year-on-year [1] - In Q3 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 19.470 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.45%, but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 2.42% [1] - The report projects operating revenues for 2024-2026 to be 69.048 billion, 71.524 billion, and 73.337 billion yuan respectively, with net profits of 5.010 billion, 5.393 billion, and 5.679 billion yuan [1] Production and Sales - In Q3 2024, the company’s coal production was 4.36 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.30%, while coal sales reached 4.36 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.50% [1] - The average coal price in Q3 was 1,115 yuan per ton, with a gross profit of 558 yuan per ton, reflecting a year-on-year decrease [1] Valuation Metrics - The report provides a projected P/E ratio of 8.3 for 2024, 7.7 for 2025, and 7.3 for 2026, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to historical levels [1] - The projected P/B ratio is 1.0 for 2024, and 0.9 for both 2025 and 2026, suggesting potential undervaluation [1] Cash Flow and Financial Health - The company’s cash flow from operating activities is projected to be 11.418 billion yuan in 2024, down from 13.031 billion yuan in 2023 [2] - The report indicates a decrease in net profit margins, with projections of 6.9% for 2024 and 7.2% for 2025 [2]