YEIC(002053) 国泰君安·2024-10-30 07:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yunnan Energy Investment (002053) with a target price of 16.32 RMB, unchanged from the previous rating [3] Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 performance met expectations, with revenue of 2.58 billion RMB (+31.7% YoY) and net profit of 570 million RMB (+71.7% YoY) [9] - The new energy sector showed strong growth, with revenue of 150 million RMB (+27.9% YoY) and net profit of 20 million RMB (+60 million RMB YoY) [9] - The salt and natural gas businesses dragged down performance, with salt revenue declining 19.7% YoY to 280 million RMB and natural gas contributing a net loss of 17 million RMB [9] - The company's wind power assets are undervalued, with potential for revaluation due to tight power supply-demand dynamics in Yunnan [9] - There is potential for clean energy asset injection from the parent group, which controls 2.8 GW of new energy assets [9] Financial Performance - Revenue is expected to grow from 2.904 billion RMB in 2023 to 5.001 billion RMB in 2026, with a CAGR of 19.8% [8] - Net profit is forecasted to increase from 482 million RMB in 2023 to 1.361 billion RMB in 2026, with a CAGR of 41.2% [8] - ROE is projected to rise from 7.0% in 2023 to 14.8% in 2026 [8] - The company's P/E ratio is expected to decline from 23.03 in 2023 to 8.16 in 2026, indicating improving valuation metrics [8] Industry and Market Position - The company is the only listed power generation platform under Yunnan Energy Investment Group [9] - The parent group controls significant clean energy assets, including 12.6 GW of hydropower and 2.8 GW of new energy [9] - The company has signed agreements for 1.2 GW of projects under the parent group's cultivation [9] - The average P/E ratio of comparable companies in 2025 is 16.1x, while Yunnan Energy Investment's P/E is projected at 10.4x, indicating potential undervaluation [12] Operational Highlights - New energy power sales reached 537 million kWh in Q3 2024, up 67.8% YoY [9] - The average market transaction price for new energy increased by approximately 0.01 RMB/kWh in September 2024 [9] - The company's installed capacity is expected to grow significantly, with total assets projected to increase from 17.584 billion RMB in 2023 to 23.640 billion RMB in 2026 [11]