宁沪高速：投资收益提前确认，Q3业绩下降

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Ninghu Expressway [1] Core Views - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 14.06 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 21.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.12 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 2.1% [1] - The decline in Q3 revenue and net profit is attributed to a decrease in oil sales and reduced real estate delivery scale [1] - The company plans to invest in the construction of the Danjin Expressway to enhance its highway business sustainability, with a total project investment of approximately 14.563 billion RMB [1] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2024, the company reported a revenue increase of 21.1%, primarily due to increased investment in road and bridge projects. Excluding construction period revenue, the operating revenue decreased by 2.33% [1] - The gross profit margin for Q3 2024 was 47.1%, an increase of 7.8 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to a reduction in zero-margin construction period revenue [1] - Investment income for Q3 2024 was 299 million RMB, a decrease of 41% year-on-year, primarily due to the earlier dividend distribution from Jiangsu Bank [1] Future Outlook - The net profit forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 4.62 billion RMB, 5.42 billion RMB, and 6.20 billion RMB, respectively, maintaining the "Buy" rating [1] - The company’s initial registered capital for the Danjin Expressway project is 1.704 billion RMB, with a 74.6% ownership stake [1] Key Financial Metrics - The company’s operating revenue for 2024E is projected to be 19.84 billion RMB, with a growth rate of 30.59% [3] - The net profit for 2024E is estimated at 4.617 billion RMB, with a growth rate of 4.61% [3] - The diluted earnings per share for 2024E is expected to be 0.916 RMB [3]