Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Pacific Insurance (02328.HK) is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the profit growth is driven by investment gains, with the company's performance nearing the upper end of its previously announced profit forecast of 20% to 40% [1] - The company achieved an insurance service revenue of CNY 364.31 billion for the first nine months of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.3% [1] - Net profit for the same period reached CNY 26.75 billion, a significant increase of 38.0% year-on-year, primarily due to a recovery in the stock market boosting fair value changes [1] Summary by Sections Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Insurance service revenue (CNY million): - 2022A: 424,355 - 2023A: 457,203 - 2024E: 494,002 - 2025E: 529,798 - 2026E: 569,764 - Year-on-year growth rates: - 2022A: 6.9% - 2023A: 7.7% - 2024E: 8.0% - 2025E: 7.2% - 2026E: 7.5% - Net profit attributable to shareholders (CNY million): - 2022A: 29,163 - 2023A: 24,585 - 2024E: 29,641 - 2025E: 32,330 - 2026E: 34,478 - Year-on-year growth rates: - 2022A: 30.4% - 2023A: -15.7% - 2024E: 20.6% - 2025E: 9.1% - 2026E: 6.6% - Return on equity (ROE): - 2022A: 13.4% - 2023A: 10.8% - 2024E: 12.1% - 2025E: 12.0% - 2026E: 11.8% - Price-to-book ratio (P/B): - 2022A: 1.20 - 2023A: 1.08 - 2024E: 0.98 - 2025E: 0.90 - 2026E: 0.83 [1] Performance Analysis - The company reported a cumulative ROE of 11.1% for the first nine months of 2024, an increase of 2.3 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The total investment return rate improved significantly from 2.7% in 9M23 to 4.4% in 9M24, which was a key factor in the net profit improvement [1] - The company experienced a decline in underwriting profit, with a total underwriting profit down 12.7% year-on-year [1] Business Segments - The cumulative comprehensive cost ratio (COR) for auto insurance was 96.8% for 9M24, showing a slight improvement due to effective cost control [1] - Non-auto insurance faced challenges with a COR of 100.5% for 9M24, primarily due to increased claims from natural disasters [1] - The report notes that the company is focusing on high-quality development and implementing a new business model combining insurance, risk reduction services, and technology [1]
中国财险：2024年三季报点评：投资浮盈拉动利润增速接近预增上沿