苏垦农发：公司信息更新报告：麦价下跌致业绩承压，期待市场回暖后业绩修复

Investment Rating - Investment rating is maintained as "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company's performance is under pressure due to declining wheat prices, but there is an expectation for recovery in performance as the market improves [3] - Revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 is reported at 7.452 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 13.55%, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 456 million, down 14.02% [3] - The company has adjusted its profit forecast for 2024-2026, expecting net profits of 766 million, 878 million, and 997 million respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.56, 0.64, and 0.72 [3] Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2024, revenue was 2.395 billion, a year-on-year decline of 28.12%, and net profit attributable to shareholders was 161 million, down 35.30% [3] - The company’s gross profit margin for Q1-3 2024 was 13.88%, an increase of 1.25 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 6.36%, up 0.16 percentage points [4] - R&D expenses increased by 60.69% in Q3 2024, contributing to a rise in expense ratio [4] Business Segment Performance - The company’s self-produced wheat sales volume decreased by 9.08% to 213,700 tons, while external wheat sales fell by 25.09% to 190,200 tons [5] - Rice seed production increased by 22.06% to 117,800 tons, with external sales rising by 25.37% to 117,000 tons, indicating strong market performance in Jiangsu [5] - The company’s rice production for Q1-3 2024 was 229,600 tons, with external sales of 248,800 tons, and inventory reduced to 9,400 tons, down 17.65% [5] Financial Forecasts - The company’s projected revenue for 2024 is 11.248 billion, a decrease of 7.6% year-on-year, with a recovery expected in subsequent years [6] - The projected net profit for 2025 and 2026 is 878 million and 997 million respectively, indicating a recovery trend [6] - The company’s P/E ratio is expected to decrease from 18.4 in 2024 to 14.1 in 2026, reflecting improved valuation as performance recovers [6]