淮北矿业：量价下跌业绩短期承压，延链补链未来增长可期

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Huabei Mining (600985) is "Buy," maintaining the previous rating of "Buy" [1]. Core Views - The report highlights that the company's performance is under short-term pressure due to declining prices and sales volumes, but future growth is expected through supply chain enhancements and strategic investments [3][4]. - The coal business maintains a high gross margin, indicating operational stability despite a decrease in production and sales volumes [1][3]. - The company is actively pursuing a strong chain extension strategy, which includes increasing coal production capacity and expanding into renewable energy projects [3][4]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported revenue of 566.69 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.04%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 41.39 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.17% [1]. - The operating cash flow for the same period was 77.89 billion yuan, up 4.74% year-on-year, while the basic earnings per share were 1.58 yuan, down 22.55% year-on-year [1]. - The gross margin for the coal business was 50.02% for the first three quarters of 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.1 percentage points [3]. Production and Sales Summary - In the first three quarters of 2024, the company produced 15.67 million tons of commodity coal, a decrease of 6.43% year-on-year, with sales of 11.88 million tons, down 13.90% year-on-year [1][3]. - The average selling price of commodity coal for the first three quarters was 1,115 yuan per ton, a decrease of 7.03% year-on-year [1][3]. - The company also reported a decline in coke production and sales, with a focus on expanding its chemical production capabilities [3]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to see long-term growth driven by its strategic initiatives in coal production, renewable energy projects, and chemical industry upgrades [3][4]. - Profit forecasts for 2024-2026 are projected at 54.86 billion, 70.64 billion, and 80.30 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding earnings per share of 2.04, 2.62, and 2.98 yuan [4].