HYMD(600971) 开源证券·2024-10-30 07:30Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's Q3 performance was negatively impacted by a decline in both coal volume and price, leading to a focus on coal-electricity integration and high dividends [1] - The company reported a revenue of 5.41 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 9.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 940 million yuan, down 42.2% year-on-year [1] - The report anticipates a decline in net profit for 2024-2026, with projections of 1.28 billion yuan, 1.36 billion yuan, and 1.39 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a year-on-year change of -37.3%, +6.5%, and +2.1% [1] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1.51 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 17.8%, and a net profit of 190 million yuan, down 43.1% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The average selling price of coal for the first three quarters was 900.8 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.6% year-on-year, with Q3 price at 785.3 yuan/ton, down 12.1% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The cost of coal for the first three quarters was 572.2 yuan/ton, an increase of 14.8% year-on-year, with Q3 cost at 602.6 yuan/ton, up 8.6% quarter-on-quarter [1] Growth Potential - The company has irrevocable acquisition rights for multiple coal mine resources, with a total coal production capacity of 10.95 million tons/year [1] - The company's power generation capacity is expected to expand, with a projected increase to 2,766 MW by the end of 2025, representing an 89% increase from the end of 2023 [1] - The company has shown a trend of increasing cash dividends, with a cash dividend of 1.02 billion yuan in 2023 and a dividend payout ratio of 50.1% [1] Valuation Metrics - The company's projected EPS for 2024-2026 is 1.06 yuan, 1.13 yuan, and 1.16 yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 9.7, 9.1, and 8.9 [4] - The total market capitalization is 11.88 billion yuan, with a current stock price of 9.90 yuan [2]