YINGJIA DISTILLERY(603198) Huaxin Securities·2024-10-30 07:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [1][2]. Core Views - The company's performance has fallen short of expectations, but the product mix continues to improve, indicating resilience amid industry adjustments [1]. - Revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 5.513 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 13.81%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.006 billion yuan, up 20.19% year-on-year [1]. - The company is expected to benefit from the ongoing growth of its core product series, particularly the Dongcang series, which is anticipated to drive profit levels higher [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2024, the company's revenue was 5.513 billion yuan, with a net profit of 2.006 billion yuan and a non-net profit of 1.997 billion yuan [1]. - Q3 2024 revenue was 1.711 billion yuan, with a net profit of 625 million yuan and a non-net profit of 631 million yuan [1]. - Gross margin for Q1-Q3 2024 was 74.28%, and net margin was 36.48%, both showing year-on-year improvements [1]. Product and Market Analysis - The revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor in Q3 2024 was 1.296 billion yuan, up 7.12% year-on-year, while ordinary liquor revenue was 336 million yuan, down 9.16% year-on-year [1]. - Revenue from domestic sales in Q3 2024 was 1.116 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.85%, while revenue from outside the province was 516 million yuan, down 3.62% year-on-year [1]. - The company has 1,442 distributors as of Q3 2024, a slight decrease from the previous quarter [1]. Earnings Forecast - The company’s EPS for 2024-2026 is projected to be 3.35 yuan, 3.91 yuan, and 4.67 yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 19, 16, and 14 times [2][4]. - The forecasted revenue growth rates for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 10.0%, 15.5%, and 17.2% respectively, while net profit growth rates are expected to be 17.3%, 16.6%, and 19.5% [4][5].