HYMD(SH:600971) Minsheng Securities·2024-10-30 07:31Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with expected earnings per share (EPS) of 0.92, 1.06, and 1.20 CNY for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, corresponding to price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 11, 9, and 8 times based on the closing price on October 29, 2024 [4][6]. Core Insights - The company reported a decline in both revenue and profit for the third quarter of 2024, with revenue of 1.515 billion CNY, down 12.42% year-on-year and 17.79% quarter-on-quarter, and a net profit of 186 million CNY, down 63.87% year-on-year and 43.07% quarter-on-quarter [1][3]. - The coal production and sales decreased both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter in Q3 2024, with raw coal production at 2.3515 million tons, down 7.6% year-on-year and 1.9% quarter-on-quarter, and average coal selling price dropping to 785.28 CNY per ton, down 5.0% year-on-year and 12.1% quarter-on-quarter [3][4]. - The company is actively participating in coal resource auctions and is set to complete the second phase of the Qianyingzi power plant project by the end of 2024, which is expected to increase its power generation capacity significantly [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 5.408 billion CNY, a decrease of 9.37% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 945 million CNY, down 42.15% year-on-year [1][2]. - The average selling price of coal for the first three quarters was 900.77 CNY per ton, down 7.6% year-on-year, while the average selling cost increased by 14.8% to 572.22 CNY per ton [2][3]. Production and Sales - In Q3 2024, the company produced 2.3515 million tons of raw coal, a decrease of 7.6% year-on-year, and sold 1.8066 million tons of coal, down 7.7% year-on-year [3][4]. - The gross profit from coal sales in Q3 2024 was 330 million CNY, a significant decline of 59.7% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 23.27%, down 27.3 percentage points year-on-year [3][4]. Future Outlook - The company expects net profits to be 1.106 billion CNY in 2024, 1.269 billion CNY in 2025, and 1.437 billion CNY in 2026, indicating a gradual recovery in profitability [4][5].