YINGJIA DISTILLERY(603198) Guoxin Securities·2024-10-30 08:01Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [3][7][9] Core Views - The company has adjusted its operational pace to relieve channel pressure, leading to a decrease in previously forecasted profits. However, with the economic activity expected to improve, the penetration rate of the cave series is gradually increasing, and the expense ratio is expected to decrease due to scale effects, maintaining an upward trend in profit margins [7][9]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q3 2024, the company's revenue increased by 2.32% year-on-year, while net profit rose by 2.86%. For the first three quarters of 2024, total revenue reached 5.51 billion yuan, up 13.8% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.01 billion yuan, up 20.2% year-on-year [4][5]. - The revenue for Q3 2024 was 1.711 billion yuan, with a breakdown showing mid-to-high-end liquor revenue at 1.296 billion yuan (up 7.12%) and ordinary liquor revenue at 336 million yuan (down 9.16%). The mid-to-high-end liquor accounted for 79.14% of total revenue, contributing to an overall gross margin increase of approximately 2.88 percentage points year-on-year [5][6]. - The company experienced a slight decrease in expense ratios for the first three quarters, with tax and sales expense ratios down by 0.16 and 0.13 percentage points, respectively. However, Q3 saw a temporary increase in sales expenses due to marketing efforts related to seasonal promotions [5][6]. Cash Flow and Receivables - The net cash flow for the first three quarters was 1.049 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.7%. Sales cash receipts totaled 5.741 billion yuan, up 10.4% year-on-year. As of the end of September, contract liabilities were 5.183 billion yuan, a slight decrease from the previous quarter [6][7]. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company has revised its profit forecasts downward, expecting revenues of 7.543 billion yuan, 8.520 billion yuan, and 9.819 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 12.2%, 13.0%, and 15.2% [2][7]. - The projected net profits for the same years are 2.705 billion yuan, 3.147 billion yuan, and 3.748 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 18.2%, 16.3%, and 19.1% [2][7].