牧原股份：业绩如期兑现 分红回报股东

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][5][11]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 96.775 billion RMB for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 16.64%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 10.481 billion RMB, marking a turnaround from losses [3][4]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 8.31 RMB per 10 shares, amounting to a total of 4.5 billion RMB, which constitutes 40.06% of the net profit for the first three quarters of 2024. The company aims to increase the cash distribution ratio to 40% over the next three years [3][4]. - The company achieved a stable growth in hog output, with 50.144 million heads sold in the first three quarters, a 7% increase year-on-year. The average selling price of hogs in Q3 was approximately 18.89 RMB per kg, benefiting from rising prices and decreasing costs [3][4]. Summary by Sections Performance Analysis - The company achieved a stable increase in hog output, with 50.144 million heads sold in the first three quarters, a 7% increase year-on-year. In Q3 alone, 17.756 million heads were sold, a 6% increase year-on-year [3][4]. - The average selling price of hogs in Q3 was about 18.89 RMB per kg, with production costs decreasing to below 13.7 RMB per kg by the end of September. The company expects costs to further decline to around 13 RMB per kg by year-end [3][4]. Financial Health - As of the end of Q3 2024, the company had a breeding sow inventory of 3.316 million heads, an increase of approximately 7,000 heads from the end of Q2. The debt-to-asset ratio improved to 58.38%, down 3.43 percentage points from Q2 2024 [4]. - The company is committed to shareholder returns, with a planned cash dividend distribution that reflects confidence in its financial stability [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 18.7 billion RMB, 24 billion RMB, and 23.9 billion RMB for the years 2024 to 2026, respectively. The corresponding earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 3.42 RMB, 4.39 RMB, and 4.37 RMB [5][7]. - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for 2024 and 2025 is estimated at 13x and 10x, respectively, indicating a favorable valuation for potential investors [5][7].