中国核电：多因素影响下，短期电量有扰动

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a significant price increase in the next 6-12 months [2][9]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 56.99 billion RMB for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.6%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 8.93 billion RMB, a decrease of 4.2% [2]. - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 19.55 billion RMB, down 1.3% year-on-year, and a net profit of 3.05 billion RMB, down 7.1% year-on-year [2]. - The increase in new energy installations and electricity generation is notable, with a 40.2% year-on-year increase in Q3 electricity generation from new energy sources [2]. - The company is expected to benefit from a stable pricing environment for nuclear power, despite recent declines in market prices [2]. - The company has announced plans for a private placement to raise funds for future power station developments, with significant investments from the China National Nuclear Corporation and social security funds [2]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a total electricity generation of 151.12 billion kWh, an increase of 2.9% year-on-year [2]. - The Q3 2024 nuclear power generation was impacted by maintenance and typhoon effects, leading to a 5.6% decrease year-on-year [2]. - The company anticipates recovery in generation capacity following the resumption of operations at the Fuqing Unit 4 [2]. Financial Forecasts - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 11.09 billion RMB, 11.77 billion RMB, and 12.67 billion RMB for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.59, 0.62, and 0.67 RMB [2]. - The price-to-earnings ratio (PE) is expected to be 18x, 17x, and 15x for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [2]. Market Analysis - The report highlights the impact of market price fluctuations on profitability, particularly in the Jiangsu region where nuclear power prices have adjusted downwards [2]. - The company’s long-term growth potential is supported by its entry into a phase of continuous operation of new units [2].