上海家化：战略调整致业绩阶段性承压，静待后续转型成效落地

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [1][3][8] Core Views - The company's performance is under pressure due to internal strategic adjustments and intensified external competition, with a revenue decline of 12.07% year-on-year in the first three quarters, totaling 4.476 billion [1][4] - The net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 58.72% year-on-year to 163 million, with a significant loss of 75.3 million in the third quarter [1][4] - The company is undergoing a transformation with management changes and restructuring of its domestic business units, including adjustments in the personal care and beauty divisions, and the introduction of an innovation division [1][4] - Despite the challenges, the company is increasing brand marketing investments, which has led to a narrowing of revenue decline in overseas markets [1][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1.156 billion, down 20.93% year-on-year, and a net profit loss of 75.3 million, compared to a profit of 93.1 million in the same period last year [1][4] - The gross margin and net margin for Q3 2024 were 54.49% and -6.51%, respectively, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 3.24 and 12.89 percentage points [1][4] - The company’s cash flow from operations was -219 million in Q3 2024, compared to 144 million in the same period last year, primarily due to sales returns and improved supplier relationships [1][4] Regional Performance - In Q3 2024, overseas revenue was 375 million, down 5.64% year-on-year, affected by low birth rates and increased competition in the baby products category [1][4] - Domestic revenue for the same period was 780 million, down 26.68%, with approximately 13 percentage points of the decline attributed to strategic adjustments [1][4] Future Outlook - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 to 303 million, 361 million, and 404 million, respectively, down from previous estimates of 427 million, 473 million, and 503 million [1][6] - The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are projected to be 37, 31, and 28 times for the respective years [1][6]