Sanquan Food (002216) 国信证券·2024-10-30 08:30Investment Rating - The report gives a "Neutral" rating for the company, with a reasonable valuation range of 11.46-12.73 yuan, representing a 4%-16.0% premium over the current stock price [4][5][42] Core Views - The company is a leader in the domestic frozen rice and noodle industry, actively expanding into new product categories and channels [2] - Short-term performance is expected to recover gradually as downstream consumption power continues to rebound and the company accelerates its B-end layout [2] - In the medium to long term, the company's strong brand momentum and innovation in product categories and channels are expected to drive growth in its catering business [2] Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 5.125 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.35%, and net profit attributable to the parent company of 394 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 28.61% [2] - In Q3 2024, operating revenue was 1.46 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.46%, and net profit attributable to the parent company was 61 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 47.02% [2] - The gross profit margin in Q3 2024 was 22.8%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.9 percentage points, mainly due to a decline in high-margin dumpling products [2] Market Segments - C-end market revenue in 2024 was 2.98 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.45%, while B-end market revenue was 680 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.13% [2] - Traditional rice and noodle products revenue decreased by 7.8% year-on-year in the first half of 2024, while innovative rice and noodle products revenue decreased by 1.7% [2] - Online sales through direct e-commerce channels increased by 60.1% year-on-year in the first half of 2024, driven by the strong performance of the "raw dumplings" product [2] Industry Position and Strategy - The company has been a leader in the frozen food industry for over 30 years, with well-known brands "Sanquan" and "Longfeng" [2] - It has production bases in Zhengzhou, Guangzhou, Chengdu, Tianjin, Suzhou, and Wuhan, with leading production capacity [2] - The company is actively expanding its online channels and optimizing its distribution system, with the number of distributors decreasing by 334 to 3,911 in the first half of 2024 [2] Future Projections - Revenue for 2024/25/26 is projected to be 6.77/7.06/7.51 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of -4.1%/+4.3%/+6.3% [2] - Net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024/25/26 is expected to be 560/586/628 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of -25.3%/+4.7%/+7.2% [2] - Earnings per share for 2024/25/26 are projected to be 0.64/0.67/0.71 yuan, with current PE ratios of 17.2/16.5/15.4 times [2] Valuation - The absolute valuation range is 11.20-12.74 yuan, based on FCFF valuation method [35][37] - The relative valuation range is 11.46-12.73 yuan, based on PE multiples of comparable companies in the frozen food industry [40][41]