Yunnan Aluminium (000807) Guohai Securities·2024-10-30 08:42Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company's Q3 performance showed a sequential increase in production, but the decline in aluminum prices impacted overall performance [4] - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 39.19 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.82 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 52% [3] - The report highlights that the increase in primary aluminum production has positively contributed to performance despite the challenges posed by falling aluminum prices and rising alumina prices [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 14.54 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 9% and a year-on-year increase of 20% [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q3 was 1.30 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 4% but a year-on-year increase of 31% [3] - The primary aluminum production for the first three quarters reached 2.148 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 26.32% [4] Market Data - As of October 28, 2024, the current stock price is 14.81 yuan, with a 52-week price range of 9.73 to 16.19 yuan [4] - The total market capitalization is approximately 51.36 billion yuan [4] Production and Sales - The report indicates that the production of electrolytic aluminum has further increased in Q3 2024, with a significant quarter-on-quarter rise in primary aluminum production [4] - The company achieved a primary aluminum production of 797,000 tons in Q3, reflecting an 11.7% increase from the previous quarter [4] Price Trends - The average price of aluminum in Q3 2024 decreased by 4.7%, while the price of alumina increased by 6.9%, affecting the company's performance [4] - In Q4, both aluminum and alumina prices have shown an upward trend, with increases noted as of October 28, 2024 [4] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for operating revenue from 2024 to 2026 is 49.3 billion, 52.2 billion, and 54.7 billion yuan respectively, with net profits expected to be 4.907 billion, 5.531 billion, and 6.160 billion yuan [4] - The estimated EPS for the same period is projected to be 1.42, 1.60, and 1.78 yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 10.47, 9.29, and 8.34 times [4]