SCIE(600546) 长城证券·2024-10-30 08:49Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Shanxi Coal International Energy Group (600546 SH) [1][8] Core Views - The company's coal production and sales volume increased QoQ in Q3 2024, with effective cost control measures [1][3] - Self-produced coal business showed improved profitability in Q3 2024, with tonnage gross profit increasing 10 22% YoY [3] - Coal trading business demonstrated growth in Q3 2024, with trading volume increasing 9 99% YoY and tonnage gross profit improving 61 72% QoQ [4][7] Financial Performance Revenue and Profit - Q3 2024 revenue reached 7 908 billion yuan, up 2 68% QoQ but down 3 84% YoY [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders in Q3 2024 was 791 million yuan, increasing 11 82% QoQ but decreasing 13 56% YoY [2] - 2024E revenue is projected at 30 147 billion yuan, with net profit attributable to shareholders expected to be 2 784 billion yuan [1] Production and Sales - Self-produced coal output in Q3 2024 reached 9 1218 million tons, up 15 96% QoQ and 1 81% YoY [3] - Self-produced coal sales volume in Q3 2024 was 6 9033 million tons, increasing 6 93% QoQ but decreasing 8 85% YoY [3] - Coal trading volume in Q3 2024 reached 5 3758 million tons, up 5 82% QoQ and 9 99% YoY [4][7] Cost and Pricing - Average selling price of self-produced coal in Q3 2024 was 660 30 yuan/ton, down 6 46% QoQ but up 3 08% YoY [3] - Average cost of self-produced coal in Q3 2024 was 268 33 yuan/ton, decreasing 12 23% QoQ and 5 83% YoY [3] - Gross profit per ton of self-produced coal in Q3 2024 reached 391 97 yuan/ton, up 10 22% YoY [3] Valuation Metrics - 2024E P/E ratio is projected at 9 6x, with P/B ratio at 1 5x [1] - 2024E EPS is forecasted at 1 40 yuan, increasing to 1 64 yuan by 2026E [1][8] - ROE is expected to be 17 1% in 2024E, gradually decreasing to 16 8% by 2026E [1] Industry and Market Position - The company has established a diversified coal production base, including thermal coal, coking coal, and anthracite [8] - The company maintains a nationwide coal trading network with significant regional and market advantages [8] - The company implements a cost leadership strategy, maintaining industry-leading cost control levels [8] Future Projections - Revenue is expected to grow from 30 147 billion yuan in 2024E to 32 655 billion yuan in 2026E [1][8] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to increase from 2 784 billion yuan in 2024E to 3 259 billion yuan in 2026E [1][8] - The company's EPS is forecasted to grow from 1 40 yuan in 2024E to 1 64 yuan in 2026E [1][8]