Ligao Foods (300973) 民生证券·2024-10-30 09:01Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 2.717 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 5.22%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 203 million yuan, up 28.21% year-on-year [3] - The frozen baking segment remains under pressure, while new cream products continue to grow [3] - The company is focusing on multi-channel and multi-category development strategies, with a new UHT cream factory set to begin production in Q4 [3] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 32.17% and a net profit margin of 7.25%, reflecting effective cost control measures [3] - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are estimated at 3.77 billion, 4.19 billion, and 4.65 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 280 million, 330 million, and 380 million yuan [3][6] - The company’s P/E ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected to be 22, 19, and 16 respectively [4][6] Product and Channel Performance - Frozen baked goods accounted for approximately 58% of revenue in the first three quarters of 2024, a decline of about 7% year-on-year, primarily due to impacts in the supermarket channel [3] - Revenue from baking ingredients, including cream and sauces, represented about 42% of total revenue, showing a growth of approximately 30% year-on-year, driven by strong sales of new cream products [3] - The distribution channel accounted for about 55% of revenue, with an 11% year-on-year increase, while the supermarket channel saw a 10% decline due to product shelf adjustments [3]