HLGF(600346) 长城证券·2024-10-30 09:17Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Hengli Petrochemical (600346 SH) [1] Core Views - Short-term profit pressure due to weaker demand for refining products, but new materials projects are gradually coming online [1] - PTA and new materials segments show strong production and sales growth [4][6] - New materials capacity expansion is expected to boost long-term growth [8] Financial Performance - 2024 Q3 revenue reached 652 25 billion yuan, up 2 42% YoY and 20 46% QoQ [1] - 2024 Q3 net profit attributable to parent company was 1 087 billion yuan, down 59 01% YoY and 42 14% QoQ [1] - 2024 Q1-Q3 gross margin was 10 36%, down 1 63 percentage points YoY [2] - 2024 Q1-Q3 net profit margin was 2 88%, down 0 41 percentage points YoY [2] Operational Highlights - PTA segment revenue in 2024 Q1-Q3 was 55 165 billion yuan, up 14 11% YoY [4] - New materials segment revenue in 2024 Q1-Q3 was 31 403 billion yuan, up 30 38% YoY [4] - PTA production volume in 2024 Q1-Q3 was 12 4449 million tons, up 41 27% YoY [6] - New materials production volume in 2024 Q1-Q3 was 4 5394 million tons, up 49 23% YoY [6] Industry and Market Conditions - International oil prices fluctuated downward in Q3 2024, with OPEC+ planning to increase production in Q4 2024 [7] - Global demand remains weak due to sluggish European economy and lack of significant improvement in China's crude oil demand [7] - Refining product prices declined overall due to weak supply-demand dynamics and cost-side support collapse [7] Future Outlook - 1600 ktpa high-performance resin and new materials project expected to achieve full production in H2 2024 [8] - Suzhou Fenhu base's 12 functional film production lines have been put into operation [8] - Nantong base's 12 functional film production lines and lithium battery separator project are progressing steadily [8] - Expected 2024-2026 revenue of 2635 82/2780 54/2886 29 billion yuan [9] - Expected 2024-2026 net profit attributable to parent company of 7 089/10 043/11 700 billion yuan [9]