XINJI ENERGY(SH:601918) Great Wall Securities·2024-10-30 09:17Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Accumulate" for Xinjie Energy [1][4] Core Views - The commissioning of the second phase of the Lixin power plant is expected to drive growth in the company's electricity business [1][3] - The company is leveraging its geographical advantages and expanding its coal-electricity integration process, which is anticipated to enhance profitability [4] Financial Summary - Revenue for 2022 was 12,003 million yuan, with a projected increase to 12,845 million yuan in 2023 and 12,999 million yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 7.0% in 2023 and 1.2% in 2024 [1][6] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 2,077 million yuan in 2022, expected to rise to 2,109 million yuan in 2023 and 2,209 million yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of 1.6% in 2023 and 4.7% in 2024 [1][6] - The company's EPS (Earnings Per Share) is projected to increase from 0.80 yuan in 2022 to 0.81 yuan in 2023 and 0.85 yuan in 2024 [1][7] Business Performance - The coal business saw a sales revenue of 7,748 million yuan in the first nine months of 2024, a decrease of 6.66% year-on-year, with a gross profit of 3,049 million yuan, down 5.16% [2][4] - The electricity generation business reported a significant increase in output, with a total generation of 8,604 million kWh in the first nine months of 2024, up 16.14% year-on-year [3][4] Cost and Pricing - The average selling price of coal for the first nine months of 2024 was 562.03 yuan per ton, an increase of 3.14% year-on-year, while the cost was 340.88 yuan per ton, up 2.18% [1][2] - The electricity selling price for the same period was 405.8 yuan per MWh, a slight decrease of 0.93% year-on-year [3][4] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 12,999 million yuan, 13,890 million yuan, and 16,575 million yuan respectively, with net profits expected to be 2,209 million yuan, 2,436 million yuan, and 2,633 million yuan [4][6] - The report anticipates a continued increase in EPS, reaching 0.85 yuan in 2024, 0.94 yuan in 2025, and 1.02 yuan in 2026 [4][6]