pingmei coal(601666) 长城证券·2024-10-30 09:18Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Pingmei Shenma Group Co., Ltd. (601666.SH) with an expected price increase of over 15% relative to the industry index in the next six months [2][13]. Core Views - The company is strategically located in the central plains, leveraging its extensive railway resources to serve downstream markets in East China, Central China, and Southwest China [3]. - The company continues to advance its "premium coal strategy," streamlining its workforce while maintaining a high dividend yield [3]. - The main coking coal produced by the company is a globally scarce strategic resource, with the highest quality and capacity in the country [3]. - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are projected at 31.439 billion, 35.055 billion, and 37.797 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits of 2.810 billion, 3.290 billion, and 3.505 billion yuan [3]. Financial Summary - For 2023, the company reported operating revenue of 31,561 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4,003 million yuan, down 30.3% year-on-year [2][8]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) for 2023 was 14.5%, with earnings per share (EPS) at 1.62 yuan [2][8]. - The coal business experienced a decrease in production and sales volume due to a production halt in the first quarter, but the gross profit per ton remained stable [2][3]. - The average selling price of coal for the first nine months of 2024 was 1,032.57 yuan per ton, an increase of 8.17% year-on-year, while the cost was 718.02 yuan per ton, up 11.05% year-on-year [2][3]. Quarterly Performance - In the third quarter of 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 70.08 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.90% year-on-year, and a net profit of 6.52 billion yuan, down 27.89% year-on-year [2][3]. - The company's coal production for the first nine months of 2024 was 2,106.01 million tons, a decrease of 8.65% year-on-year, while the sales volume was 2,008.18 million tons, down 13.09% year-on-year [2][3]. Investment Strategy - The company plans to increase its investment in Xinjiang Pingmei Tianan Electric Power Investment Energy Co., Ltd. to enhance its coal resource reserves and improve competitiveness and profitability [2][3].