Willfar(688100) 国泰君安·2024-10-30 09:20Investment Rating - Maintains an "Overweight" rating with a target price increase to 47.75 RMB [3][6] Core Views - The company's overseas business growth is below previous expectations, leading to a downward revision of net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 to 641/784/969 million RMB, with EPS adjusted to 1.30/1.59/1.97 RMB, representing reductions of 21%/22%/24% respectively [4] - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 1.941 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 16.79%, with net profit attributable to the parent company at 422 million RMB, up 21.95% year-on-year [4] - The company has a robust order backlog, with total orders reaching 3.766 billion RMB by September 2024, a 28.7% increase year-on-year [4] - The company's overseas revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was 329 million RMB, accounting for 17% of total revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 105.9% [4] - The company signed a memorandum of cooperation with the UAE Ministry of Energy on October 7, 2024, focusing on smart buildings, power distribution networks, and intelligent water management, indicating significant market expansion potential in the Middle East [4] Financial Performance - Revenue for 2024E is projected at 2.670 billion RMB, a 20.0% increase year-on-year, with net profit attributable to the parent company expected to reach 641 million RMB, up 22.0% year-on-year [5] - The company's ROE (Return on Equity) is forecasted to be 19.2% in 2024E, with a net profit margin of 24.1% [5] - The company's EPS (Earnings Per Share) for 2024E is projected at 1.30 RMB, with a P/E ratio of 31.05 [5] Industry and Market Trends - The "Dual Carbon" policy and the large-scale integration of new energy are driving unprecedented opportunities in the construction of new power systems, with State Grid and Southern Grid planning a total investment of 2.9 trillion RMB during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [4] - The global energy transition trend is accelerating, with green energy and digital transformation becoming key drivers, providing the company with significant growth opportunities in international markets [4] Company's Strategic Focus - The company is committed to providing comprehensive solutions from data intelligent perception to efficient data transmission and smart data applications [4] - The company's chip module business showed strong growth in the first three quarters of 2024, with revenue reaching 597 million RMB, a 22.3% increase year-on-year, accounting for 30.9% of total revenue [4] - The company's HPLC chip modules are a major product category in the digital energy scenarios of State Grid and Southern Grid, with long-term sustainable demand [4]