Muyuan Foods (SZ:002714) Zhongyuan Securities·2024-10-30 09:30Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company, indicating a projected increase of 5% to 15% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [15]. Core Views - The company has turned its performance around, reporting a profit for the first three quarters of 2024, with revenue reaching 96.775 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.64%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 10.481 billion yuan, marking a significant recovery [2]. - The company announced a cash dividend plan, distributing 8.31 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 4.505 billion yuan, which represents 40.06% of the net profit for the first three quarters of 2024, reflecting confidence in its financial health [2]. - The report anticipates a strong demand for pork in Q4, driven by traditional year-end stocking needs, despite recent price fluctuations [3]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a net profit of 10.481 billion yuan, compared to a loss in the same period of the previous year. The operating cash flow was 29.178 billion yuan, up 336.27% year-on-year [2]. - The company sold 50.144 million pigs in the first nine months of 2024, a 6.67% increase year-on-year, with a significant rise in sales volume and price [4]. - The average cost of pig farming has been decreasing, with expectations to reach 13 yuan/kg by the end of 2024 [4]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The projected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 20.034 billion yuan, 20.096 billion yuan, and 18.710 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding earnings per share (EPS) of 3.67 yuan, 3.68 yuan, and 3.42 yuan [5][10]. - The company’s revenue is expected to grow from 135.26 billion yuan in 2024 to 142.17 billion yuan in 2025, with a slight increase to 142.688 billion yuan in 2026 [10]. Market Position and Valuation - The company’s current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected at 11.75 for 2024, indicating a reasonable valuation compared to peers in the industry [5][8]. - The report highlights the company's competitive advantages as a leading player in the industry, with growth potential in its slaughtering segment [5].