Shede Spirits (600702) 民生证券·2024-10-30 09:31Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for Shede Spirits (600702 SH) [1][3] Core Views - Shede Spirits' revenue and net profit declined significantly in Q3 2024, with total revenue down 30 9% YoY and net profit attributable to parent company down 79 2% YoY [1] - The company is facing short-term pressure due to market adjustments and structural shifts in product mix [1] - Shede Spirits is implementing a long-term strategy focusing on brand building and channel management [1] Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, Shede Spirits reported total revenue of 1 189 billion yuan, down 30 9% YoY [1] - Net profit attributable to parent company was 78 million yuan in Q3 2024, a 79 2% YoY decrease [1] - Gross margin declined by 10 95 percentage points to 63 66% in Q3 2024 [1] Product and Market Strategy - The company is adopting a "volume control and price stabilization" strategy for its core product Pinwei Shede [1] - Shede Spirits is focusing on dual-brand strategy with Shede and Tuopai, aiming to strengthen its position in the high-end market [1] - Regional strategy combines nationwide expansion with deep cultivation in key markets [1] Financial Forecasts - Revenue is expected to decline by 18 6% in 2024 to 5 764 billion yuan, with recovery projected in 2025 and 2026 [1][2] - Net profit attributable to parent company is forecasted to be 994 million yuan in 2024, a 43 9% decrease from 2023 [1][2] - The company's PE ratio is projected to be 22x in 2024, decreasing to 18x by 2026 [2][4] Operational Metrics - The number of distributors increased by 108 to 2,763 by the end of Q3 2024 [1] - Inventory turnover days are expected to increase from 798 22 days in 2023 to 895 36 days in 2024 [4] - Accounts receivable turnover days are projected to decrease from 14 85 days in 2024 to 6 07 days in 2026 [4]