华发股份：短期业绩承压，拟回购提振信心

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with expected growth in net profit for 2024-2026 adjusted to 1.7 billion, 2.03 billion, and 2.14 billion RMB respectively, reflecting year-on-year changes of -7.4%, +19.1%, and +5.6% [2]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2024, with revenue at 31.559 billion RMB, down 33.21% year-on-year, and net profit at 1.331 billion RMB, down 39.56% [1]. - The decrease in revenue is primarily attributed to a reduction in the scale of project completions in the real estate sector, compounded by ongoing industry challenges [1]. - Despite the sales pressure in the first nine months, October showed promising results with record-high visitor transactions [1]. - The company is focusing on first-tier cities, having expanded only two projects in Shanghai and Guangzhou during the first nine months of 2024 [1]. - The company plans to repurchase shares worth 300 to 600 million RMB to enhance its long-term incentive mechanisms [1]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - For the first nine months of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 31.559 billion RMB, a decrease of 33.21% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.331 billion RMB, down 39.56% [1]. - In Q3 2024, revenue was 6.716 billion RMB, reflecting a 57.42% decline year-on-year, with net profit at 66 million RMB, down 75.98% [1]. Operational Analysis - The decline in performance is linked to reduced project completions and profits, with sales down 37% to 65.12 billion RMB and sales area down 30% to 2.276 million square meters in the first nine months [1]. - The company reported a significant increase in rental income, up 39.2% year-on-year, with total rental area at 989,900 square meters, an increase of 67.2% [1]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates a recovery in performance as quality projects are completed, with adjusted net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 reflecting a gradual recovery [2]. - The stock is currently valued at a PE ratio of 11.1x for 2024, 9.3x for 2025, and 8.8x for 2026, indicating potential for growth [2].