凯莱英：三季度边际改善，看好公司底部反转

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 4.14 billion RMB for the first three quarters of 2024, a decrease of 35.14% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of 710 million RMB, down 67.86% [1]. - In the third quarter alone, the company achieved a revenue of 1.44 billion RMB, representing an 18.09% decline year-on-year, and a net profit of 210 million RMB, down 59.68% [1]. - Excluding large orders, the company showed signs of improvement with a 12.23% year-on-year growth in revenue for the third quarter, and a 11.21% quarter-on-quarter growth [2]. - The small molecule business generated 1.192 billion RMB in revenue in the third quarter, with a year-on-year growth of 18.89% after excluding large orders [2]. - The company has secured multiple clinical mid-to-late stage project orders for peptides from multinational corporations (MNCs) and signed commercialization orders for GLP-1 peptides with significant domestic clients [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters, the company achieved a total revenue of 41.4 billion RMB, with a net profit of 7.1 billion RMB [1]. - The third quarter revenue was 14.4 billion RMB, with a net profit of 2.1 billion RMB [1]. - The company’s revenue growth rate for the first three quarters, excluding large orders, was 4.48% year-on-year [2]. Cost and Expenses - The decline in revenue has led to increased expense ratios, with the sales expense ratio at 4.04%, up 1.86 percentage points year-on-year, and the management expense ratio at 12.92%, up 4.13 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Business Development - The peptide business is progressing well, with production capacity exceeding 20,000 liters by the end of the reporting period [2]. - The emerging business segment reported a revenue of 7.45 billion RMB for the first three quarters, down 8.37% year-on-year [2]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company’s projected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 1.033 billion RMB, 1.195 billion RMB, and 1.397 billion RMB respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.81, 3.25, and 3.80 RMB [2]. - The current stock price corresponds to a PE valuation of 30, 26, and 22 times for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [2].