CMS(600999) 国信证券·2024-10-30 10:01Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the company [1][3][10] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 14.279 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, a slight decrease of 3.98% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 11.68% to 7.15 billion yuan [1] - The improvement in performance is attributed to policy support boosting market confidence, leading to a rebound in the stock market and increased trading activity, with proprietary trading becoming a key growth driver [1][4] - The company has increased client fund inflows through enhanced internet channels, resulting in a 24% year-on-year growth in monetary funds to 136.618 billion yuan [1][8] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported net income from brokerage business of 3.673 billion yuan, down 14.15% year-on-year, while investment income (including fair value changes) rose by 51.88% to 7.166 billion yuan [1][8] - The company's financial asset scale reached 371.5 billion yuan, an increase of 8.81% year-on-year, driven by favorable capital market policies [1][8] - The investment banking segment faced challenges, with revenues declining by 43.82% to 419 million yuan, while bond financing increased by 30.8% to approximately 289.7 billion yuan [1][8] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The earnings forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 have been raised by 4.6%, 2.3%, and 1.2% respectively, with projected net profits of 9.372 billion yuan, 10.033 billion yuan, and 11.088 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 6.9%, 7.1%, and 10.5% [1][2][8] - The current price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are projected at 13.6, 12.7, and 11.5 for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, while the price-to-book (PB) ratios are expected to be 1.0, 1.0, and 0.9 [1][2][8]