CMS(600999) 国信证券·2024-10-30 10:05Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][3]. Core Views - The company reported a slight decline in revenue of 3.98% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2024, totaling 142.79 billion yuan, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 11.68% to 71.5 billion yuan, driven by a rebound in the stock market and increased trading activity [1][2]. - The company's self-operated business has become a key driver of performance growth, with investment income (including fair value changes) rising by 51.88% year-on-year to 71.66 billion yuan [2]. - The capital market is recovering, leading to increased client fund inflows, with cash and cash equivalents at the end of the period reaching 1,366.18 billion yuan, a 24% increase year-on-year [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a net income of 71.5 billion yuan, with a return on equity (ROE) of 6.12%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) rose by 11.59% to 0.77 yuan per share [1]. Business Segments - Brokerage business net income was 36.73 billion yuan, down 14.15% year-on-year, while investment banking revenue fell by 43.82% to 4.19 billion yuan [2]. - The company’s asset management business saw a decline in net income of 8.49% to 5.02 billion yuan, despite an increase in managed assets [2]. Future Earnings Forecast - The earnings forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 have been raised by 4.6%, 2.3%, and 1.2% respectively, with projected net profits of 93.72 billion yuan, 100.33 billion yuan, and 110.88 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 6.9%, 7.1%, and 10.5% [3][4]. - The current price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are projected at 13.6, 12.7, and 11.5 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with price-to-book (PB) ratios of 1.0, 1.0, and 0.9 [3][4].