TECON(002100) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2024-10-30 10:20Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company has shown excellent performance with a continuous decline in breeding costs and steady growth in operations, leading to consistent earnings [1] - The company reported a revenue of 13.087 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 11.01%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders reached 566 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 212.14% [1] - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 has been revised downwards due to expected pressure on pig prices, with projections of 898 million yuan, 688 million yuan, and 761 million yuan respectively [1] Summary by Sections Breeding Costs and Performance - The company's revenue from pig breeding for Q1-Q3 2024 was 3.64 billion yuan, an increase of 10.76% year-on-year, with a total of 2.144 million pigs sold, up 4.15% year-on-year [2] - The total cost of pig breeding in Q3 2024 was 14.28 yuan/kg, showing a month-on-month decline [2] - The company aims to exceed 3 million pigs sold in 2024 and targets 5 million by 2027 [2] Feed and Animal Health Business - For Q1-Q3 2024, the company sold 2.0436 million tons of feed, a year-on-year increase of 2.25%, with exports accounting for 1.3319 million tons [3] - The revenue from the animal health business was 837 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.82% [3] - Despite facing pressure from price wars in the feed and animal health sectors, the company anticipates improved performance in Q4 due to seasonal demand for pork [3] Financial Projections - The company's projected revenues for 2024-2026 are 17.165 billion yuan, 19.197 billion yuan, and 21.076 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year decrease of 9.8% expected in 2024 [4] - The projected net profit for 2024 is -1.363 billion yuan, followed by 898 million yuan and 688 million yuan in 2025 and 2026 respectively [4] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.66 yuan, 0.50 yuan, and 0.56 yuan for 2024-2026 [4]