Ligao Foods (SZ:300973) SINOLINK SECURITIES·2024-10-30 10:20Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 2.717 billion yuan for the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 5.22%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 203 million yuan, up 28.21% year-on-year [1] - The frozen baking segment remains under pressure, while cream products are experiencing rapid growth, with cream product revenue increasing over 70% year-on-year [1] - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 3.993 billion yuan, 4.442 billion yuan, and 4.900 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 269 million yuan, 326 million yuan, and 364 million yuan [1] Performance Analysis - The revenue from frozen baked goods decreased by approximately 7% year-on-year, primarily due to a decline in supermarket channel performance [1] - The cream product segment, driven by new UHT cream products, saw a revenue increase of about 30% year-on-year [1] - The company’s gross margin for the first three quarters was 32.17%, a slight decrease of 0.35 percentage points year-on-year, with a gross margin of 31.34% in Q3, down 0.55 percentage points year-on-year [1] Financial Forecasts - The company is projected to achieve a revenue growth of 14%, 11%, and 10% for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [1] - The expected net profit growth rates for the same years are 268%, 21%, and 12% respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 21, 18, and 16 [1]