老凤祥：季报点评：终端销售波动，公司短期业绩承压

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][3]. Core Views - The company experienced a significant decline in revenue and net profit in Q3 2024, with revenue down 42% to 12.6 billion yuan and net profit down 46% to 370 million yuan due to fluctuations in the consumer environment and high gold prices [1]. - Despite the challenging market conditions, the company is actively expanding its market presence and enhancing its R&D capabilities, opening 28 new stores in the first half of 2024 [2]. - The company’s operational efficiency remains robust, with a significant reduction in accounts receivable and inventory levels, indicating effective cash flow management [2]. - Looking ahead, the company is expected to see an overall decline in performance for 2024, with a projected net profit of 2 billion yuan, down 8.4% year-on-year [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1 to Q3 2024, the company reported a total revenue of 52.58 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15.3%, and a net profit of 1.78 billion yuan, down 9.6% [1]. - The gross margin for Q3 2024 decreased by 1 percentage point to 6.5%, while the net profit margin fell by 0.2 percentage points to 2.9% [1]. Market Expansion and R&D - The company has opened 28 new stores, bringing the total to 6022, and is focusing on themed stores and specialized supply meetings to boost sales [2]. - The establishment of the Hainan Creative Center is expected to enhance the company's R&D capabilities and support its international market entry [2]. Cash Flow and Inventory Management - As of Q3 2024, accounts receivable decreased by 55% to 2.94 billion yuan, and inventory decreased by 8% to 6.55 billion yuan, indicating improved cash flow management [2]. - The operating cash flow for the first three quarters of 2024 was 6.55 billion yuan, reflecting an 8.4% decline year-on-year, consistent with revenue and profit trends [2]. Earnings Forecast - The company’s earnings forecast for 2024-2026 has been adjusted to 2.028 billion yuan, 2.269 billion yuan, and 2.431 billion yuan respectively, with a projected P/E ratio of 15 times for 2024 [3][4].