Lakala(300773) 国泰君安·2024-10-30 11:10Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating and raises the target price to 27.90 CNY, corresponding to a 30x P/E for 2024 [5][6]. Core Insights - The company experienced a decline in payment transaction amounts and a decrease in net settlement rates, leading to a quarter-on-quarter performance drop. However, as an industry leader, the company is expected to benefit from supply-side clearing and is viewed positively for future growth [4][5]. - The company's digital payment business generated 39.1 billion CNY in revenue, accounting for 89% of total revenue. The transaction amount for the first three quarters was 3.19 trillion CNY, down 6% year-on-year, while the QR code transaction amount increased by 19% to 1 trillion CNY [5]. - The report adjusts the EPS forecast for 2024-2026 to 0.93, 1.07, and 1.21 CNY, respectively, due to the decline in industry payment transaction volumes [5]. Financial Summary - For 2022A, the company reported a revenue of 5,394 million CNY, which is expected to increase to 5,938 million CNY in 2023A, followed by a slight decrease to 5,915 million CNY in 2024E. The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to recover from a loss of 1,437 million CNY in 2022A to a profit of 458 million CNY in 2023A and 743 million CNY in 2024E [5][6]. - The net asset return rate is expected to improve from -42.9% in 2022A to 12.2% in 2023A and further to 17.1% in 2024E [5][6]. - The company’s total assets are projected to grow from 10,444 million CNY in 2022A to 12,921 million CNY in 2024E, while total liabilities are expected to increase from 7,094 million CNY to 8,573 million CNY in the same period [5][6].