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赛维时代:2024年三季报点评:销售持续高增,新品开拓影响三季度业绩

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a current price of 26.18 CNY [7]. Core Views - The company has demonstrated strong sales growth, with a revenue increase of 55.50% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2024, reaching 6.802 billion CNY. However, the net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 12.20% year-on-year to 195 million CNY [2]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its product development and marketing efforts, which has led to increased costs and a significant impact on profitability in the third quarter [3]. - The company is leveraging digital technology to create an agile fashion supply chain, with a strong emphasis on brand incubation and overseas logistics to improve efficiency [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported a revenue of 6.802 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 55.50%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 195 million CNY, down 12.20% year-on-year [2]. - In Q3 2024, revenue reached 2.624 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 63.89%, while the net profit was -40 million CNY, a decline of 155.65% year-on-year [2]. Product and Marketing Strategy - The company has increased its product development efforts, resulting in a 57.79% year-on-year increase in revenue from apparel and accessories for the first three quarters, totaling 4.858 billion CNY [2]. - Marketing expenses have risen significantly due to intensified promotional activities and participation in events like New York Fashion Week, which has contributed to increased brand visibility [3]. Inventory and Cash Flow - As of Q3 2024, inventory surged to 2.081 billion CNY, a 159.32% increase from the beginning of the year, with inventory turnover days increasing by 33 days to 103.93 days [4]. - The company reported a negative operating cash flow of -485 million CNY for the first three quarters, primarily due to increased inventory and preparations for the peak season [2][4]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 368 million CNY, 462 million CNY, and 587 million CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 9.6%, 25.7%, and 27.0% [4]. - The report highlights the company's strategic focus on refining operations across products, services, and channels, indicating a positive long-term growth outlook [4].