数据来源：聚源 -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 36% 2025-03 2025-07 2025-11 商贸零售 沪深300 商贸零售 2026 年 03 月 22 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 相关研究报告 《2026 年 1-2 月社零同比+2.8%，春节 消 费 稳 健 恢 复 — 行 业 点 评 报 告 》 -2026.3.17 《逸仙电商获 1.2 亿美元投资，老铺黄 金业绩预告高增 — 行 业 周 报 》 -2026.3.15 《38 大促国货美妆表现亮眼，上美股 份发布盈喜预告 — 行 业 周 报 》 -2026.3.8 京东 Joybuy 欧洲上线，自营模式打开差异化空间 ——行业周报 | 黄泽鹏（分析师） | 李昕恬（分析师） | | --- | --- | | huangzepeng@kysec.cn | lixintian@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790519110001 | 证书编号：S0790526030002 | lixintian@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790526030002 跨境电商平台 Joybuy 上线，自营模式布局差异化竞争 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Key policy points from the Two Sessions include: 1) issuance of 250 billion yuan in ultra-long special government bonds to support the replacement of consumer goods; 2) establishment of a 100 billion yuan fiscal-financial collaboration fund to promote domestic demand through loan interest subsidies and financing guarantees; 3) implementation of actions to enhance service consumption and create new consumption scenarios to stimulate consumption in lower-tier markets. The impact on the commercial sector is expected to be positive in the short term due to the replacement policy driving demand for durable consumer goods, benefiting retail, home appliance chains, and brand distributors with channel advantages. In the medium to long term, the upgrade of service supply and new consumption trends will become new growth points, pushing the commercial sector towards a "goods + services" model. The policy implementation is likely to favor leading companies with supply chain integration and digital operation capabilities, indicating a potential improvement in industry concentration [1][13]. Industry Data Tracking - GMV performance: In the fourth week of January, the overall GMV of Tmall and JD.com increased by 81.52% year-on-year, likely related to the timing of the New Year goods festival. The top five categories in terms of growth were automotive and bicycles, home decoration, books and audio-visual products, watches, and outdoor sports [3][23]. - Hotel performance: In the 9th week of 2026, the national hotel RevPAR increased by 6.0% year-on-year, with an occupancy rate of 55.1%, a slight decline of 1.8 percentage points year-on-year. The ADR and RevPAR were 198.3 yuan and 109.2 yuan, respectively, showing year-on-year growth of 9.5% and 6.0% [2][19]. Market Review - In the week from March 2 to March 6, 2026, the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, CSI 300, Hang Seng Index, and Hang Seng Tech Index decreased by -0.93%, -2.22%, -1.07%, -3.28%, and -3.70%, respectively. The commercial retail sector saw a decline of -3.91%, ranking 8th among the nine major consumption sectors. Notable stock performances included Su Mei Da and He Mei Group with significant gains, while Jin He Commercial Management and others experienced notable declines [4][28][30]. Investment Recommendations - Gold and jewelry: The report suggests a continued recommendation for brands like Lao Pu Gold, which has seen consumer acceptance of price increases better than expected, with a potential for margin optimization. The brand's strong performance is validated by high customer traffic in major cities post-price adjustment. For Chao Hong Ji, new product launches are expected to strengthen the franchise model, with a focus on improving profitability through increased self-production and optimized product structure [6][37]. - The report also recommends focusing on retail companies like Yonghui Supermarket, which is transitioning to a selective retail model, leveraging its strong fresh produce sales and operational experience to create a competitive advantage [6][38].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the industry [4]. Core Insights - The report continues to recommend investment in the travel and tourism sector, specifically hotels and scenic spots, highlighting companies such as Huazhu Group, ShouLai Hotel, and JinJiang Hotels [4]. - Individual stock opportunities include ZhuMian Group, Jiangsu Guotai, SuMeiDa, Action Education, GuoQuan, HaiDiLao, and GuMing [4]. - The report notes adjustments in US-China tariffs and suggests focusing on cross-border expansion, recommending companies like Anker Innovation, KangNaiTe Optical, and GreenLink Technology [4]. - The retail sector saw a decline, with the trade retail sector down 3.61% and consumer services down 7.95% last week, ranking 22nd and 24th out of 30 industries respectively [4]. - Key stock performers included SuMeiDa (+14.33%), QinShang Shares (+12.58%), and Action Education (+10.30%) [4]. Industry Updates - In the social service industry, MiXue Ice City is testing fresh coffee products, and Ctrip will launch a pricing assistant feature to enhance merchant pricing autonomy starting March 10 [4]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) plans to support innovative enterprises in new consumption and modern services to list on the Growth Enterprise Market [2][4]. - In the retail sector, Taobao has initiated a "Billion Spring Subsidy" campaign, while JD.com anticipates reduced investment in food delivery for 2026 compared to 2025 [4]. - In 2025, Henan province's cross-border e-commerce exports reached $3.359 billion, a 23.7% year-on-year increase [4]. Company Announcements - Lao Feng Xiang reported a net profit of 1.75496 billion yuan for 2025, a decrease of 9.99% year-on-year [4]. - Guangzhou Restaurant achieved a net profit of 487.98 million yuan for 2025, down 1.19% year-on-year [4]. - JD.com reported a net profit of 19.6 billion yuan for 2025, a decline of 52.66% year-on-year [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the gold jewelry and tourism sectors [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights the potential for revaluation in the gold jewelry sector due to international geopolitical instability and rising gold prices, indicating that the jewelry sector is generally undervalued. It recommends companies such as Cai Bai Co., Lao Pu Gold, Luk Fook Holdings, China Gold, Chao Hong Ji, and Chow Sang Sang [2][4]. - The tourism sector is expected to continue its recovery, with specific recommendations for hotels including Huazhu Group-S, Shoulv Hotel, and Jin Jiang Hotels, as well as scenic spots like Emei Mountain A, Jiuhua Tourism, Huangshan Tourism, and Sanxia Tourism [4]. - Individual stock opportunities are identified, recommending companies such as Zhu Mian Group, Jiangsu Guotai, Su Mei Da, Action Education, Guo Quan, Hai Di Lao, and Gu Ming [4]. - The report notes the impact of US-China tariff adjustments and suggests monitoring cross-border exports, recommending companies like Anker Innovations, Konnate Optics, Ugreen Technology, Saiwei Times, Huakai Yibai, and Zhiou Technology [4]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report emphasizes the recovery in consumer spending and the overall positive outlook for the tourism sector, particularly in light of the longest Spring Festival holiday in history [2][4]. Market Performance - Last week, the retail trade sector saw a rise of 0.86%, while the consumer services sector experienced a decline of 4.02%, ranking 22nd and 29th respectively among 30 sectors [4]. Company Updates - Key updates include Cai Bai Co. announcing a share reduction plan and Anker Innovations reporting a significant bond reduction [4]. - The report also highlights the performance of various companies, with notable increases in stock prices for Jin Jiang Hotels (+6.24%), Shoulv Hotel (+5.69%), and Huazhu Group-S (+5.20%) [4]. Financial Projections - The report provides financial forecasts for key companies in the gold jewelry sector, indicating expected growth in net profits and PE ratios for companies like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Feng Xiang [5]. Dividend and ROE Analysis - The report includes a detailed analysis of dividend rates and return on equity (ROE) for various companies, indicating strong performance metrics for several key players in the industry [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the gold and jewelry sector as well as for the tourism and travel industry [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the international geopolitical situation is unstable, leading to an increase in gold prices and an overall undervaluation of the jewelry sector. It recommends companies such as Cai Bai Co., Lao Pu Gold, Luk Fook Holdings, China Gold, Chao Hong Ji, and Chow Sang Sang. Additionally, certain bulk trading companies are expected to benefit indirectly, with a focus on Su Mei Da [2][4]. - The tourism and travel sector is expected to continue its recovery, with recommendations for hotels including Huazhu Group-S, Shoulv Hotel, and Jin Jiang Hotels, as well as scenic spots like Emei Mountain A, Jiuhua Tourism, Huangshan Tourism, and Sanxia Tourism [4]. - Individual stock opportunities include recommendations for Zhu Mian Group, Jiangsu Guotai, Su Mei Da, Action Education, Guo Quan, Hai Di Lao, and Gu Ming [4]. - The report notes adjustments in US-China tariffs and suggests monitoring cross-border exports, recommending companies such as Anker Innovations, Konnate Optics, Ugreen Technology, Saiwei Times, Huakai Yibai, and Zhiou Technology [4]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report indicates a significant increase in gold prices due to geopolitical instability, suggesting that the jewelry sector is undervalued [2][4]. - The tourism sector is projected to recover, with a focus on hotel and scenic area investments [4]. Company Recommendations - Recommended companies in the gold and jewelry sector include: - Cai Bai Co. (605599.SH) - Lao Pu Gold (6181.HK) - Luk Fook Holdings (0590.HK) - China Gold (600916.SH) - Chao Hong Ji (002345.SZ) - Chow Sang Sang (002867.SZ) [4][5]. - Recommended companies in the tourism sector include: - Huazhu Group-S (1179.HK) - Shoulv Hotel (600258.SH) - Jin Jiang Hotels (600754.SH) - Emei Mountain A (600238.SH) - Jiuhua Tourism (603199.SH) [4][5]. Market Performance - Last week, the retail sector saw a rise of 0.86%, while the consumer services sector experienced a decline of 4.02%, ranking 22nd and 29th respectively among 30 sectors [4].

2月24日，广东省高质量发展大会在广州召开，大会期间举行五场平行分会场。在主题为"数字经济与贸 易新业态"的分会场上，赛维时代（301381.SZ）创始人兼董事长陈文平，分享了"一件衣服的奇幻漂 流"的故事，全景展示了AI技术如何深度赋能跨境贸易全链条，为行业智能化转型提供了可复制的实践 样本。 赛维时代成立于2012年，是广东省首家A股跨境电商上市企业，主营服饰配饰等时尚生活品类。2025年 营收超100亿元，纳税超1亿元，出口额超22亿元。 在上架展示环节，AI化身全能"柜姐柜哥"，破解传统拍摄痛点。以往商品上架需投入高额成本聘请模 特、租赁场地并协调档期，现在仅需一张样衣图，AI即可一键生成符合亚马逊平台要求的整套模特套 图，无需外模实拍。同时支持将静态图转化为适配社交媒体的热门短视频，并能实现中国模特智能换脸 为多国籍外模，既精准逼真又显著降低拍摄成本。 AI的"智能投手"让广告更精准。AI能够自主学习优秀广告投放人员的经验，智能制定广告策略，自动调 整竞价与预算，实现精准投放，提升广告投资回报率。同时，AI还可以担当"贴心客服"，闭环优化体 验。AI客服可自动响应查询、处理物流跟踪及退换货申请，并能 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Increase" rating for the retail and wholesale trade industry, indicating an expected performance that exceeds the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index by over 15% [5]. Core Insights - The U.S. Supreme Court ruled that the tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) were illegal, leading to a proposed 5% reduction in tariffs on Chinese goods through the implementation of Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 [2][5]. - The Section 122 tariffs will have a broad exemption list, including critical minerals, energy products, certain agricultural products, pharmaceuticals, and vehicles, ensuring limited scope for the tariffs [4]. - The new tariffs will apply a uniform global rate of up to 15%, eliminating previous country-specific differences, thus impacting most trade partners similarly [4]. Summary by Sections Legal Context - The Supreme Court's decision on February 20, 2026, overturned the previous tariffs under IEEPA, stating that the power to impose taxes lies with Congress, not the President [5]. - The new tariffs under Section 122 are set to be temporary, with a maximum duration of 150 days unless extended by Congress [5]. Tariff Structure - The current tariff structure on Chinese goods includes four categories: 301 tariffs (7.5%-25%), 232 tariffs (25-50%), the new 122 tariffs (15%), and special taxes (e.g., fentanyl and reciprocal tariffs totaling 20%) [5]. - The ruling results in a net reduction of approximately 5% in tariffs on Chinese goods, alleviating some pressure on trade [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment, including Anker Innovations, Ugreen Technology, Saiwei Times, Sumida, Jihong Co., and Zhiou Technology, all rated for "Increase" [5][6].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a steady recovery in consumer spending during the Spring Festival, with significant increases in payment transactions and retail sales compared to the previous year [4][26] - The report emphasizes the importance of high-quality companies in high-growth sectors driven by emotional consumption themes [7][35] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - The Spring Festival saw a robust recovery in social consumption, with payment transactions on New Year's Eve reaching 4.931 billion, a 21.64% increase from the previous year [4][26] - Key regions like Hainan and cities such as Tianjin and Zhenjiang showed strong performance in retail and dining, with Hainan's duty-free shopping amounting to 1.03 billion yuan, up 20.9% year-on-year [4][27] - Domestic travel orders surged by 60%, and outbound travel orders increased by over 180% during the holiday period [4][26] Investment Recommendations - Investment Theme 1: Focus on high-end gold and fashion jewelry brands, recommending companies like Laopai Gold and Chaohongji for their differentiated product offerings [7][35] - Investment Theme 2: Emphasize retail companies adapting to trends and AI-enabled cross-border e-commerce leaders, with recommendations for Yonghui Supermarket and Aiyingshi [7][35] - Investment Theme 3: Highlight domestic beauty brands that cater to emotional value and innovative safe ingredients, recommending brands like Maogeping and Proya [7][35] - Investment Theme 4: Focus on differentiated medical beauty product manufacturers and leading medical beauty institutions, recommending companies like Meilitiantian Medical Health and Aimeike [7][35] Market Performance - The retail and social service indices reported declines of 1.59% and 0.78% respectively during the week from February 9 to February 13, 2026 [6][15] - The report notes that the education sector saw the highest growth among sub-sectors, while the watch and jewelry sector led the year-to-date performance with an 11.29% increase [6][18] Company Highlights - Laopai Gold reported a significant revenue increase of 250.9% in the first half of FY2025, driven by strong consumer demand and brand expansion [37] - Chaohongji is expected to achieve a net profit growth of 125% to 175% in FY2025, supported by its differentiated product strategy [37] - Maogeping and Proya are highlighted for their strong performance in the beauty sector, with Maogeping achieving a revenue increase of 31.3% in FY2025 [37]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the recent US Supreme Court ruling on the $175 billion tariff refund has significant implications for both China and the A-share market, despite the refund being an internal US matter [2][6][28] - The $175 billion in tariffs was primarily collected from imports, including a 10% tariff on Chinese goods, and is now being refunded to US importers [8][10] - The refund will indirectly benefit Chinese companies as US importers, who have been financially strained by tariffs, will use the refunded money to pay off debts to Chinese suppliers and resume orders [12][14][28] Group 2 - The immediate impact on the A-share market is expected to be positive, with a potential "opening red" for A-shares as market sentiment improves following the ruling [40][46] - The ruling is seen as a signal that the previous high tariffs on Chinese goods may not be a permanent state, which could lead to a more favorable environment for Chinese exports [20][48] - Structural opportunities in the A-share market are identified, focusing on five main lines: export-oriented sectors, domestic substitution, strategic resources, domestic consumption, and new energy [51][62][88] Group 3 - Export-oriented sectors, particularly those with high exposure to the US market, are expected to benefit directly from the tariff refunds, with companies like Midea Group and Haier expected to see improved performance [52][72][73] - Domestic substitution and self-sufficiency in sectors like semiconductors and military equipment are highlighted as long-term strategic focuses, with companies like SMIC and AVIC Shenyang Aircraft being key players [53][78][86] - Strategic resources such as rare earths and gold are also expected to see price support due to ongoing global supply chain disruptions, benefiting companies like Northern Rare Earth and Shandong Gold [56][87]

Core Viewpoint - The company Saiwei Times (301381) has recently completed a shareholder reduction plan, reporting a revenue growth of over 20% year-on-year for the first three quarters, but the high proportion of guarantees relative to net assets raises risk concerns [1][5]. Group 1: Stock Performance - On December 30, 2025, the main capital inflow was 2.4222 million yuan, indicating increased short-term attention. However, on January 8, 2026, when the stock price rose by 2.10%, there was a capital outflow of 407,700 yuan, reflecting market sentiment volatility [2]. Group 2: Executive Changes - On January 13, 2026, the major shareholder, Qiongcheng Zhongteng Venture Capital Partnership (Limited Partnership), completed its reduction plan, selling a total of 12,103,655 shares, which accounts for 3.00% of the company's total share capital. After the reduction, Zhongteng's holding ratio decreased to 18.07%. This action complies with regulations and is stated not to affect the governance structure of the company [3]. Group 3: Performance and Operations - For the period from January to September 2025, the company reported an operating income of 8.188 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 20.39%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 210 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 7.34%. Historical data shows that in 2024, the operating income was 10.275 billion yuan, and the net profit attributable to the parent was 214 million yuan [4]. Group 4: Financial Condition - The company has provided a high total amount of guarantees for its subsidiaries. As of November 28, 2025, the approved guarantee amount accounted for 184.90% of the most recent net assets, while the actual guarantee balance was 101.19%. The company has advised investors to pay attention to related risks [5].