Zhejiang Dahua Technology (002236) 民生证券·2024-10-30 12:16Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for Dahua Technology (002236 SZ) [5] Core Views - Dahua Technology achieved total operating revenue of 22 45 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 0 77% Net profit attributable to the parent company was 2 545 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1 74% [2] - In Q3 2024, the company's main business revenue was 7 583 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0 8%, while net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 19 75% year-on-year to 735 million yuan [2] - Domestic business is recovering, with government projects partially implemented in Q3 and more expected in Q4 The company expects positive year-on-year growth in domestic revenue in Q4 2024 [3] - Overseas business grew by 9 08% in H1 2024, contributing significantly to revenue and profit The company expects continued growth in overseas revenue in Q4 2024 [3] - The company has launched a series of enterprise digital transformation solutions, including the Dahua Xinghan large model and industry-specific small models, which are expected to become new growth drivers [3] Financial Forecasts - The report forecasts EPS for 2024-2026 to be 1 09 yuan, 1 32 yuan, and 1 52 yuan respectively [3] - The PE ratio is expected to be 15x, 12x, and 11x for 2024-2026 based on the closing price on October 30, 2024 [3] - Revenue is projected to grow from 32 218 billion yuan in 2023 to 42 470 billion yuan in 2026, with growth rates of 5 4%, 6 3%, 10 6%, and 12 1% respectively [4][6] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 7 362 billion yuan in 2023 to 5 012 billion yuan in 2026, with growth rates of 216 7%, -51 3%, 21 6%, and 14 9% respectively [4][6] Business Segments - Government business improved in Q3 2024, with some emergency projects implemented and more expected in Q4 [3] - Enterprise business saw growth in industrial and commercial enterprises and energy sectors, but declined in intelligent building due to macroeconomic factors [3] - Overseas business grew significantly in Europe, Southeast Asia, Mexico, and Brazil, but slowed in Australia, Latin America, Africa, and the Middle East The company has exited the US market [3] Strategic Initiatives - The company has developed a multi-modal fusion industry vision model (Dahua Xinghan) and industry-specific small models, integrating AI with its smart IoT platform [3] - The company is focusing on four major business directions: safety production, production execution, detection and measurement, and green low-carbon [3] - Overseas strategy includes channel sinking, expanding system integrator customers, and promoting solutions for smart cities, transportation, energy, buildings, and education [3]