华发股份：前三季度业绩承压，公司计划回购股份，展现管理层信心

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6] Core Views - The company experienced a significant decline in revenue and net profit in the first three quarters of 2024, with revenue down 33.2% year-on-year to 31.56 billion yuan and net profit down 39.6% to 1.331 billion yuan [1] - The management's decision to initiate a share buyback plan demonstrates confidence in the company's future performance, with plans to repurchase shares worth between 300 million and 600 million yuan [3] - The company is focusing on acquiring land in core cities, with a cautious approach to land purchases due to the current market environment [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported a revenue of 31.56 billion yuan, a decrease of 33.2% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.331 billion yuan, down 39.6% [1] - The gross margin declined by 1.9 percentage points to 15.8%, impacting profit levels [1] - The company’s contract sales for January to September 2024 amounted to 65.12 billion yuan, a decrease of 37.1%, but the decline rate has narrowed compared to the first half of the year [2] Land Acquisition Strategy - The company has adopted a strategy focused on core cities, acquiring two plots of land in Shanghai and Guangzhou with a total land area of 93,000 square meters and a total equity acquisition cost of 1.493 billion yuan [2] - As of June 30, 2024, the total land reserve was 13.72 million square meters, a decrease of 15.4% from the end of 2023 [2] Share Buyback and Support from Major Shareholder - The company announced a share buyback plan to support employee stock ownership plans or equity incentives, with a buyback amount not less than 300 million yuan and not exceeding 600 million yuan [3] - The major shareholder, Huafa Group, has shown strong support, increasing its stake to 29.65% as of September 30, 2024 [3] Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the company will gradually stabilize its financial performance as higher-margin projects acquired since 2022 begin to be recognized in the financial statements [1] - The revenue forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are adjusted to 68.5 billion yuan, 70.11 billion yuan, and 72.29 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits projected at 1.69 billion yuan, 1.66 billion yuan, and 1.67 billion yuan [4]