Bank of Chengdu(601838) 民生证券·2024-10-30 12:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Chengdu Bank, with a target price of 15.41 CNY, corresponding to 0.8 times the 2024 PB ratio [2][4]. Core Views - Chengdu Bank is expected to continue benefiting from strong credit demand driven by major regional strategies, supporting high growth rates in its scale. The bank's asset quality remains excellent, with low non-performing loan (NPL) and attention rates, and high provision coverage, which allows for lower impairment provisions and supports performance [2][4]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, Chengdu Bank reported a total revenue of 17.2 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 3.2%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 9 billion CNY, up 10.8% year-on-year. The non-performing loan ratio stood at 0.66%, with a provision coverage ratio of 497% [1][2]. - The bank's net interest income, fee income, and other non-interest income showed year-on-year growth rates of 1.8%, 15.9%, and 7.8%, respectively, although these rates have decreased compared to the first half of 2024 [1]. - Total assets and total loans increased by 14.9% and 22.2% year-on-year, respectively, with corporate loans growing by 24.9% and personal loans by 11.5% [1][2]. - The bank's cost-to-income ratio at the end of Q3 2024 was 24.8%, an increase of 1.0 percentage points from the end of H1 2024 [1]. Earnings Forecast - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 3.41 CNY, 3.82 CNY, and 4.32 CNY, respectively. The bank's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to be 5 for 2024 and decrease to 4 by 2026 [3][2]. - The forecasted net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 is 13.02 billion CNY, reflecting a growth rate of 11.6% [3][2]. Asset Quality - The non-performing loan ratio is projected to decrease to 0.63% in 2024, with a provision coverage ratio of 483.6% [37][2]. - The attention rate is expected to decline to 0.39% by 2024, indicating a stable asset quality outlook [37][2].