Sunner(002299) Guohai Securities·2024-10-30 12:30Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][7] Core Views - The company's performance in Q3 2024 showed a quarter-on-quarter improvement, with total revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 at 13.762 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.18%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 383 million yuan, down 48.25% year-on-year. However, Q3 2024 revenue reached 4.925 billion yuan, with a net profit of 281 million yuan, indicating a significant recovery compared to Q2 2024 [2][3] - The company has achieved high-quality growth in its main business, with slaughter volume increasing by over 22% year-on-year and stable growth in cooked food sales. The company has successfully expanded its market share in the catering supply chain, particularly with export sales increasing by over 30% year-on-year [2][3] - The company is positioned as a leader in the white feather chicken industry, with expectations for improved profitability as demand recovers. Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are adjusted to 19.135 billion yuan, 21.369 billion yuan, and 23.302 billion yuan, with net profits of 722 million yuan, 1.365 billion yuan, and 1.124 billion yuan respectively [2][5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company reported a net profit increase of 117 million yuan compared to Q2 2024, with September being the best-performing month of the year [2][3] - The company’s revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was 13.762 billion yuan, with a net profit of 383 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline due to lower chicken prices [2][3] Market Position - The company has maintained a focus on high-value channels and products, achieving a nearly 20% year-on-year increase in C-end revenue from January to September 2024 [2][3] - The company continues to enhance brand recognition and consumer acceptance through product diversification and new product launches [2][3] Earnings Forecast - The earnings forecast for 2024-2026 includes total revenues of 19.135 billion yuan, 21.369 billion yuan, and 23.302 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 722 million yuan, 1.365 billion yuan, and 1.124 billion yuan [5][7] - The projected P/E ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 26, 14, and 16 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation outlook as demand improves [2][5]