SDHS(600350) Huachuang Securities·2024-10-30 12:46Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Shandong Expressway (600350) [1] Core Views - In Q3 2024, the company achieved an operating income of 7.765 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.33%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 2.74% to 883 million yuan [1] - The company plans to expand the S16 Rongwei Expressway, which is expected to enhance its main business performance starting from 2028 [1] - The company has a stable dividend policy, committing to a dividend payout ratio of no less than 60% from 2020 to 2024 [1] Financial Performance Summary - Q3 2024 operating income: 7.765 billion yuan, up 19.33% year-on-year - Q1-3 2024 total operating income: 19.9 billion yuan, up 10.94% year-on-year - Q3 2024 net profit attributable to shareholders: 883 million yuan, down 2.74% year-on-year - Q1-3 2024 net profit attributable to shareholders: 2.515 billion yuan, down 5.7% year-on-year - Q3 2024 non-net profit: 860 million yuan, up 7% year-on-year [1] Business Segment Performance - Toll revenue in Q3 2024: 2.913 billion yuan, down 2.4% year-on-year, with a narrowing decline compared to the first half of the year - Investment income for Q1-3 2024: 966 million yuan, down 0.25% year-on-year - Rail transit revenue for Q1-3 2024: 3.535 billion yuan, up 6% year-on-year, with net profit remaining flat at 328 million yuan - Qilu Expressway revenue for Q1-3 2024: 4.616 billion yuan, up 44.25% year-on-year, with net profit down 3.4% to 393 million yuan - Information Group revenue for Q1-3 2024: 2.495 billion yuan, with net profit of 144 million yuan [1] Investment Projections - Earnings forecast for 2024-2026 adjusted to 3.36 billion, 3.54 billion, and 3.69 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.69, 0.73, and 0.76 yuan - Target price set at 11.3 yuan, indicating a potential upside of 29% from the current price of 8.72 yuan [1][2]