Shede Spirits (600702) 开源证券·2024-10-30 14:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (Maintain) as of October 30, 2024 [1]. Core Views - The report highlights that the pressure on the company is accelerating, and there is a focus on potential bottom reversal opportunities. The company is actively adjusting to release inventory pressure, although profitability remains under pressure [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3, the company achieved revenue of 9.0 million for high-end liquor and 1.5 million for ordinary liquor, representing year-on-year declines of 35.7% and 15.0%, respectively. The decline in high-end liquor is primarily due to weak business demand, particularly affecting the mid-to-high-end segment [2]. - The company reported a contract liability balance of 0.1 billion at the end of Q3, with sales receipts of 11.5 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 21.1%, which aligns closely with revenue performance [3]. - The gross margin decreased by 11.0 percentage points year-on-year in Q3, while the net profit margin fell by 15.3 percentage points to 6.6%. The company anticipates a net profit margin of approximately 20% for the full year of 2024 [4]. Financial Projections - The projected financial metrics for the company are as follows: - Revenue is expected to decline from 7,081 million in 2023 to 5,988 million in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 15.4% [5]. - The net profit is projected to decrease from 1,771 million in 2023 to 1,217 million in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 31.3% [5]. - The gross margin is expected to decrease from 74.5% in 2023 to 70.2% in 2024, while the net margin is projected to drop from 25.0% to 20.7% over the same period [5]. Market Dynamics - The company is facing increased competition in the mid-to-high-end liquor market, leading to a more conservative market approach since the second half of the year, which has impacted market share [2]. - The number of distributors at the end of Q3 was reported at 2,763 [2]. Stock Performance - The current stock price is 63.60 yuan, with a market capitalization of 211.89 billion yuan. The stock has seen a significant decline, with a 1-year high of 124.20 yuan and a low of 39.56 yuan [1].