Muyuan Foods (SZ:002714) Huaxin Securities·2024-10-30 14:02Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [2][6]. Core Views - The company has achieved significant revenue growth and profitability in Q3 2024, driven by rising prices and volumes in its pig farming business, with a revenue of 399.09 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.33%, and a net profit of 96.52 billion yuan, up 930.2% year-on-year [2][3]. - The company is focused on cost reduction and efficiency improvements, with the cost of pig farming dropping to slightly below 13.7 yuan per kilogram in September 2024, down from 15.8 yuan per kilogram at the beginning of the year [3]. - The company has increased its dividend payout, distributing 8.31 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 45.05 billion yuan, which represents 40.06% of its net profit for the first three quarters of 2024 [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported a total revenue of 967.75 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.6%, and a net profit of 104.81 billion yuan, with a non-recurring net profit of 112.21 billion yuan, indicating a significant turnaround from losses in the previous year [2][4]. - The company sold 5,014.4 million pigs in the first three quarters, a 6.7% increase year-on-year, with Q3 alone seeing a sale of 1,775.6 million pigs, up 8.4% quarter-on-quarter [4]. Cost Management - The company has successfully reduced its breeding costs, with a notable decrease in feed prices contributing to a 50% reduction in costs, alongside improvements in production efficiency [3]. Dividend Policy - The company has revised its dividend policy to increase the minimum annual cash distribution to shareholders from 20% to 40% of the distributable profits, reflecting a commitment to enhancing shareholder returns [5]. Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 1,334.78 billion yuan, 1,520.08 billion yuan, and 1,551.94 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.80 yuan, 4.70 yuan, and 3.62 yuan [6][8].