Sinomine(002738) 民生证券·2024-10-30 15:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [4]. Core Views - The company experienced short-term pressure on performance, with a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2024. Revenue reached 3.57 billion yuan, down 28.7% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders was 550 million yuan, down 73.6% year-on-year [2]. - The lithium price continues to decline, with efforts to reduce costs ongoing. The average market price for lithium carbonate in Q1-Q3 2024 was 95,000 yuan, a decrease of 67.8% year-on-year [2]. - The company has a strong advantage in cesium and rubidium raw materials, with revenue from this segment reaching 730 million yuan in Q1-Q3 2024, maintaining gross profit at 530 million yuan [2]. - The company is accelerating the development of copper and gallium-indium projects, which are expected to become new profit growth points. The acquisition of the Kitumba copper mine in Zambia has been completed, and project feasibility studies are underway [2]. - The investment suggestion highlights ongoing cost reduction in lithium salts, a solid advantage in cesium and rubidium, and the strategic layout in copper and gallium-indium to create new profit growth points. The projected net profits for 2024-2026 are 770 million, 1.04 billion, and 1.75 billion yuan, respectively [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of 3.57 billion yuan, a decrease of 28.7% year-on-year, and a net profit of 550 million yuan, down 73.6% year-on-year. In Q3 alone, revenue was 1.15 billion yuan, down 18.2% year-on-year [2]. - The company’s lithium sales volume for Q1-Q3 2024 was approximately 28,000 tons, with a significant increase in self-mined sales [2]. Cost Management - The company is actively working on cost reduction for lithium salts, with improvements in recovery rates at the Bikita mine and plans to establish a lithium sulfate production line in Zimbabwe [2]. Business Development - The cesium and rubidium business segment remains strong, with a gross margin increase of 8 percentage points year-on-year. The company’s Tanco mine is the largest and only operational cesium mine globally [2]. - The company is also focusing on gallium-indium projects, with significant resources identified in the Tsume project in Namibia [2]. Future Projections - The company expects to see a gradual recovery in net profits, with projections of 770 million yuan in 2024, 1.04 billion yuan in 2025, and 1.75 billion yuan in 2026, corresponding to PE ratios of 32, 24, and 14 times, respectively [2][3].